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The results are pretty clear with 1996 out of 2017 districts reporting. Voter participation - 1333296 (52.77%). Non-valid votes - 56814 (4.26%). Here below is a table with relevant parties.

PartyVotesPercentageRun-Off chances
of cast votesSeats Likely + Toss-up + Underdog
Darbo Partija 26618919.9617+1 5+18+13
Social Democrats 24599218.4515+1 9+13+6
The Homeland Union 19911914.93139+22+4
The Liberal Movement 1128368.467 2+4+0
Drąsos Kelias1056187.927 0+4+5
Order And Justice 983887.386 3+4+1
The Polish minority party 778295.845+1 2+4+0
The Peasants & Green Union 521453.9100+2+0
The Center-Liberals 275352.070 0+0+2
Independents02+1+1

Darbo and Social-democratic representatives face off in 16 constituencies. The 3 talking parties are guaranteed 61 seats. The Homeland Union is doing very well in Vilnius and Kaunas. They face 11 Darbo, all 9 Drąsos (mostly in Kaunas) and 6 Social-democrat opponents.

P.S. What I called Liberal Union (would be Liberalų Sąjunga) has to be called Liberal Movement (Liberalų Sąjūdis).
by das monde on Mon Oct 15th, 2012 at 01:58:49 PM EST
In a discusion on the national TV, Uspaskich is visibly under influence. (His car already broke parking rules today.) Kubilius explains that no one without him will get finances and Europe's challenges right. (Even if he doubled the state debt in 4 years.) No argument would be finished coherently. How did Lithuania survive before this millennium?
by das monde on Mon Oct 15th, 2012 at 03:39:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How sober are those watching?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Oct 17th, 2012 at 10:28:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
When soc-dems send their former prime minister Kirkilas to that debate, and he won't formulate a half-objection against legends on his fiscal irresponsibility, some drinks look welcome.
by das monde on Thu Oct 18th, 2012 at 03:39:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Centre-left 'leaders' across Europe are such chickens it's sickening.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Oct 18th, 2012 at 03:48:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Are they paid for those performances?
by das monde on Thu Oct 18th, 2012 at 04:16:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So, assigning 100% of likely and 50% of toss-up runoffs, one gets:

Darbo 32
SD 31
Homeland 33
Liberal 11
DK 9
O&J 11
Polish 10
Green 1
Independents 2
Total 129

Does that make sense?

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 15th, 2012 at 03:46:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm guessing the key will be withdrawal agreements between the future coalition parties, which could tilt the balance in their favour.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Oct 15th, 2012 at 03:53:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
? The total is 140 with two halls rounded down. Thus 141.

Darbo Partija might go to a coalition with the conservatives and liberals, leaving the soc-dems to retire. There is a lot to fight or loose in the 2nd round.

by das monde on Mon Oct 15th, 2012 at 04:11:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is Darbo Partija  a leader centric construct? Will they go where their leader goes?

I gained the impression that a lot of lithuanian parties are fluid, fluctuating around persons.

by IM on Tue Oct 16th, 2012 at 03:30:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Political personalities frequently create "own" parties to advance to Seimas. But most of them fail: look at Zuokas now, former conservative prime minister Vagnorius, etc.

On the other hand, the Liberal Movement, the social-democrats and the conservatives are clearly more centered around ideology than leaders.

If Uspaskich becomes a prime minister, he and Darbo Partija should be considered as separate entities for a while. Darbo Partija has a number of former leftish hopes, such as the social-liberal almost president Paulauskas.

by das monde on Wed Oct 17th, 2012 at 04:12:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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