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So, assigning 100% of likely and 50% of toss-up runoffs, one gets:

Darbo 32
SD 31
Homeland 33
Liberal 11
DK 9
O&J 11
Polish 10
Green 1
Independents 2
Total 129

Does that make sense?

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 15th, 2012 at 03:46:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm guessing the key will be withdrawal agreements between the future coalition parties, which could tilt the balance in their favour.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Oct 15th, 2012 at 03:53:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
? The total is 140 with two halls rounded down. Thus 141.

Darbo Partija might go to a coalition with the conservatives and liberals, leaving the soc-dems to retire. There is a lot to fight or loose in the 2nd round.

by das monde on Mon Oct 15th, 2012 at 04:11:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is Darbo Partija  a leader centric construct? Will they go where their leader goes?

I gained the impression that a lot of lithuanian parties are fluid, fluctuating around persons.

by IM on Tue Oct 16th, 2012 at 03:30:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Political personalities frequently create "own" parties to advance to Seimas. But most of them fail: look at Zuokas now, former conservative prime minister Vagnorius, etc.

On the other hand, the Liberal Movement, the social-democrats and the conservatives are clearly more centered around ideology than leaders.

If Uspaskich becomes a prime minister, he and Darbo Partija should be considered as separate entities for a while. Darbo Partija has a number of former leftish hopes, such as the social-liberal almost president Paulauskas.

by das monde on Wed Oct 17th, 2012 at 04:12:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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