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What do you make of the stronger showing of the Social Democrats than what was indicated by your run-off chance forecast? Is Uspaskich frustrated?

About O&J: A platform may matter little with populists, but I still have to ask, did his platform/rhetoric shift to the left since the Paskas presidency on any subject? What ministries could Paksas get, and what damage could he wreak? (Or are the Darbo people more problematic?)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 06:28:37 AM EST
the run.off has worked in favour of the social democrats and even more the conservatives and disadvantaged labour.
by IM on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 06:45:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But the run-off gave The Homeland Union exactly the number of additional seats in the prediction quoted by dasmonde (9 likely + half of 22 toss-up = 20), while the Social Democrats could statistically count on 15.5 but got 22. Labour didn't lose that much: 11 instead of 14.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 08:48:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I should have made clear that I was looking at the percentages and the seats and their relationship.

On the predictions only the social democratic result was surprising, that is true.

percentages:

  1. Darbo Partija        19.82%
  2. Social Democrats    18.37%   
  3. The Homeland Union   15.08%   

Seats:

  1. Social Democrats      38
  2. The Homeland Union    33
  3. Darbo Partija     29
by IM on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 10:39:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The 2nd round shows that the Social Democrats have a more stable support. That support was not strong enough to take more candidates to the 2nd round, but it was more telling in the second round. They beat Darbo 13-3 in the run-offs, making all the difference between these two parties.

The 35.86% voter activity in the second round was considerably higher than 4 years ago (27.56%). So despite unattractiveness of choices (perhaps), more people took time to express their choice.

I saw a sign of dissatisfaction in Uspaskich, but he has other problems beside loosing the 2nd round - more on this later.

The party programs were a joke; most parties (including the Hoemland Union) posted them in the last month. Paksas was a prime-minister (twice) in 1999-2001 as a conservative, and his party campaigns looked vaguely nationalistic. But on current economic issues, Paksas indicated that he does not support the liberal-conservative solutions.

by das monde on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 11:14:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Are there geographical trends that favour one party or another?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 01:09:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The conservatives did very well in Vilnius and Kaunas this time, taking 15 out of 18 constituencies there. The 3rd city, Klaipeda, was won by conservatives and liberals. The countryside is overwhelmingly for LSDP or Darbo. Paksas has a pocket of support around native Telsiai in the Western part. Several constituencies are very consistent with electing the same party.

There are interactive maps here. Good look with deciphering.

by das monde on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 03:45:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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