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As you say, a host of assumptions. But the one that might be wrong is the assumption that EP elections are a guide. EP elections are usually for local, national parties. If the vote is for somebody from another country, participation might be a lot lower; I don't see any way to estimate this.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 04:11:51 PM EST
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I thought 30% instead of 43% was significantly lower...

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by A swedish kind of death on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 04:21:14 PM EST
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Thinking some more. Say that we adjust paticipation rates so the CDU candidate knocks out the EPP candidate. The PES candidate benefits even more as he/she faces a candidate without support outside Germany.

In either scenario, the smart thing for EPP to do is to nominate the German.

The really interesting question is if the european parties can gather behind a candidate and a program or if the effort will split them. Or if they hold together, what effect it will have locally. Will we get the European version of the demise of dixiecrats and New England republicans?

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by A swedish kind of death on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 05:11:58 PM EST
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