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As you say, a host of assumptions. But the one that might be wrong is the assumption that EP elections are a guide. EP elections are usually for local, national parties. If the vote is for somebody from another country, participation might be a lot lower; I don't see any way to estimate this.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 04:11:51 PM EST
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