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I'm not clear on precisely what he's doing wrong, but I think he might be using a static model where he should be using a dynamic one. When I do a quick and dirty run on what I think he did, I get autocorrelated residuals, which usually means that you've forgotten a lagged dependent variable in your specification.

I'm not totally clear in how that would give him the sort of results he's getting, but models with autocorrelated residuals take great delight in producing interesting and innovative forms of gibberish.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Dec 24th, 2012 at 08:04:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
tl;dr

Did the author provide any justification for using Statistics to Model and analyze dynamic, non-linear, phenomena subject to sensitivity to initial conditions (aka "wind")?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Dec 26th, 2012 at 01:45:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes: The aggregates are not.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Dec 26th, 2012 at 06:10:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
By "aggregates" you mean "previously measured" ?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Thu Dec 27th, 2012 at 12:54:22 PM EST
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