Tactics and Strategy at the Strait of Hormuz | 55 comments (55 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Tactics and Strategy at the Strait of Hormuz (none / 0)

In a serious shooting war, yes. But if it comes to a serious shooting war, then Iran has already lost. I'm assuming that the Iranian government understands that fact, because if they were suicidal they wouldn't still be around.

So the Iranian strategy is essentially to persuade the US that an attack is more trouble than it's worth. That means hitting screen, not capital ships. Because if you start sinking American capital ships, the Americans will have to destroy you pour encourager les autres. The Americans simply can't afford letting the precedent stand that you can get away with knocking their capital ships out of the water.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Feb 15th, 2012 at 05:19:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tactics and Strategy at the Strait of Hormuz (none / 0)

Jake, why do you say that if a full conflict develops Iran has already lost?

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Thu Feb 16th, 2012 at 03:11:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tactics and Strategy at the Strait of Hormuz (4.00 / 2)

match, meet flamethrower. Game over.

Iran loses in an all out shooting war. Their best bet is to get invaded, the leadership hide out in Afpak and then to grind the occupation expensively over time as in Iraq.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Feb 16th, 2012 at 05:41:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What Helen said, but stronger: (none / 1)

If a more than halfway industrialised country becomes involved in a serious war against an enemy who has even a sporting chance of fighting back, the best they can hope for is a Pyhrric victory. Even if Iran were to send an American invasion force back in plastic bags, they would have no realistic expectation of recouping the expenditure of men, machines and materials through spoils. That makes any large-scale conflict a strategic defeat, regardless of the tactical outcome.

Iran probably understands that. The Iran-Iraq war certainly provided an instructive and memorable example.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Feb 16th, 2012 at 11:26:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Helen said, but stronger: (none / 0)

Jake, History tells us that there are many ways to win a war. Who won the Vietnam war? A military defeat of NATO would mean a loss of control over the Strait, that would be the ultimate spoil of war. Apart from that the political/religious implications would be huge.

But I doubt Iran can impose a military defeat on NATO, at least alone.

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Thu Feb 16th, 2012 at 04:19:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Helen said, but stronger: (none / 0)

I don't know if anybody could be said to have won the war in Viet Nam. Hell, I don't even know who lost worse.

The whole point I'm trying to get across here is that in war it's a whole lot easier to make the other guy lose than it is to win. Negative sum games will do that to you.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Feb 16th, 2012 at 04:28:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What Helen said, but stronger: (4.00 / 2)

I don't even know who lost worse.

It was an existential threat to Hanoi, one which they survived. It was largely the byproduct of political football in the USA, plus defense of the sacred cold war "domino theory" beloved of Dean Rusk, Henry Kissenger, et al. The USA would have had to cauterize most of Vietnam and the Mekong River valley in order to prevail, and that would have assumed that China stayed out. Had it gone nuclear we might have had a test case for the nuclear winter hypothesis.

As the threat was greater to the Vietnamese - it was their country - they were prepared to pay a higher price. The problem for the US was that the collateral damage to the economy and society was too high to bear for much longer and yet we were hoist on the petard of our own "Peace with Honor" rhetoric. The wounds and divisions remain in the USA to this day, as they almost certainly do in Vietnam. Those wounds were the price for John Foster Dulles and other Eisenhower Era functionaries having tried to pick up 'the white man's burden' from the French.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Feb 16th, 2012 at 05:52:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tactics and Strategy at the Strait of Hormuz (4.00 / 2)

I'm not sure this is the case.

US military force doesn't translate will into battlefields where the enemy employs assymetric warfare. And absent airpower, the ability of the United States to project power into the region is seriously limited.

I also question whether there Iranian perspective on this doesn't see the recent uprest in the Arab World as an opening. Agree or disagree with the premise, the recent conference on the Arab Spring in Teheran suggests that the Iranians see these protesters as a potential fifth column. Attacks on Ras Tanura and oil infrastructure would allow the Iranians to punch way above their weight. If they think that they can pull that off, it may be that they think that they can force the US to withdraw from the region.

Reality aside, perception is what motivates action. Even if there is ultimately zero chance that they can win, the Iranians may think that they can. That being the case, things could go to shit because of misperception.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Feb 16th, 2012 at 03:25:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tactics and Strategy at the Strait of Hormuz (none / 0)

There are lots of American air bases along the southern coast of the Persian Gulf that could stand in for a carrier, though. And the Arab Spring is mostly a North African thing so far, which is an awful long way away from Iran.

It's obviously always possible for things to go to shit because one or both sides misapprehend their relative strength. But trying to carry the day with foreign irregulars and a Brilliant, Decisive First Strike... That plan just has "catastrophe" written all over it.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Feb 16th, 2012 at 04:13:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tactics and Strategy at the Strait of Hormuz (none / 1)

But trying to carry the day with foreign irregulars and a Brilliant, Decisive First Strike... That plan just has "catastrophe" written all over it.

After the Bush administration I think we should that even presumably sane countries go a little crazy from time to time.

Sarcasm aside. The main thing I'd point out is that understanding what the Iranian government thinks is the situation probably tells us more about they will do than what the situation actually is.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Feb 16th, 2012 at 04:26:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Tactics and Strategy at the Strait of Hormuz | 55 comments (55 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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