There is a scenario five, which I personally rate as more probable: Limited NATO strikes against Iranian targets, which are met with only limited resistance. Because:

(a) The damage done by perfunctory air strikes of the sort deployed against Serbia in the Kosova conflict is economically and militarily insignificant.

(b) Iran does not wish to escalate the conflict. Escalating, such as by mounting a spirited defence of their airspace against aggressors, would risk turning a mostly meaningless dick-waving contest into a serious shooting war. Which Iran would lose.

(c) A shelled out apartment complex or two and a couple of downed enemy warplanes make great propaganda footage.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.