So some kind of action is, I suspect, quite a high likelihood.

But I think there's enough opposition (and memories of Iraq and Afghanistan) to keep it to something less than a full scale conflict - at least at first.

Thus we should probably expect the CIA to try to stir up a resistance group in one region of Iran and unofficial action alongside a no-fly zone (a la Libya) to be the approach.

While I wouldn't say NATO wouldn't try something like this, such strategy wouldn't guarantee: a) that the Strait remains open, or at least free of disruption; b) that the Iranian Nuclear programme is halted. In my view this strategy would easily escalate into a full scale conflict.

Oh, I completely agree on the possibility that such an attack might spiral out of control. Particularly if they hit a target that actually hurts, or if they misjudge the mood of the Iranians, or if the Iranian air defence gets a little too enthusiastic with causing mechanical failures on the Israeli jets. But I'm working under the assumption that the US and Israel (Israel in particular) is run by psychopaths who are perfectly prepared to risk such an escalation to get a good photo-op of a burning building for domestic dick-waving purposes.

It won't stop the nuclear programme, of course - you just can't do that with that sort of limited air war, as has been proven time and time again in theatres ranging from Germany to Kosova. But stopping the Iranian nuclear programme has never been the point, which is why it does not feature in my analysis at all.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.