Unfortunately, there is a very high likelihood of any conflict being caused by a shooting mishap between scared and trigger happy, heavily armed opposing forces testing each others boundaries, as they do every day.  In such a scenario, the playbook calls for protecting naval assets, and that requires air and special forces actions against ballistic and other missile sites, all of which are targeted and tracked from space.  The US maintains air bases completely surrounding Iran, including in Afghanistan and Iraq, so the Iranians are at a disadvantage geographically, and they know this, but that does not prevent accidents or jumpiness, charged by national chauvinism, from causing tragedies of this kind with so many armed vessels and aircraft encountering each other.