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Germany's austerity was a protectionist exercise in which Germany piggybacked on the rest of the Eurozone to pay for the reunification.

It might surprise you, but history didn't start in 2002 or 1999.

Because it is totally unnecessary. Governments do not have to pay back their "debt," ever.

Yea, because after frequently defaulting they have no problem to attract new lenders.

Just how stupid do you think people are?

by cris0 on Sat Feb 18th, 2012 at 08:06:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yea, because after frequently defaulting they have no problem to attract new lenders.

Just how stupid do you think people are?

Ahem.

Fitch Upgrades Iceland Rating To First Step Of Investment Grade (FEBRUARY 17, 2012)

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 18th, 2012 at 08:13:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Different situation.

Iceland never defaulted. They just (prudently) refused to guarantee certain debt of their failed banks (something that Ireland should have studied much more closely before doing the opposite).

They found other creative solutions to maintain a banking sector sufficient to service their (relatively small) domestic economy; solution which may or may not work in bigger states.

If investors did learn something from that is "do not lend money to loosely regulated Icelandic banks" - which do not exist any more anyway.

They also might learn "trust the instincts of Icelandic politicians" - which actually could improve their bonds' reputation.

by cris0 on Sat Feb 18th, 2012 at 09:10:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
With this statement you have lost whatever credibility you had.

In the United States, Cris? Your contribution is really unwelcome. You should spend more time on US politics.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Sat Feb 18th, 2012 at 09:40:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In the United States, Cris?

That's the default setting for new users...

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 18th, 2012 at 09:42:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
talking about default....

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
by r------ on Sat Feb 18th, 2012 at 09:49:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
ah.

hmm.

Thanks for the pointer. Corrected.

FWIW, this kind of mandatory data collection is not a good idea. That particular selection list would benefit from an "undefined" or "world citizen" line.

by cris0 on Sat Feb 18th, 2012 at 10:09:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]


tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 18th, 2012 at 10:21:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
ET 1.01 you mean?

Would be good.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Feb 18th, 2012 at 10:43:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
ET 1-plus-epsilon.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 18th, 2012 at 10:46:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
what are you talking about?
by cris0 on Sat Feb 18th, 2012 at 09:56:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Iceland defaulted on its depositor guarantee. Which has far higher seniority than mere government bonds.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Feb 18th, 2012 at 09:42:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
except, as to my knowledge, it didn't.

Uk and the Netherlands' loud yelling to the contrary notwithstanding Iceland made it clear very early that it only considered Icelandic domestic savers guaranteed; and afaik those were compensated to the legal limit.

Aside from that, even if you were right and Iceland had really changed the order of seniority in favor of its bondholders here, that again would boost its reputation with bond investors. The increase of which was the original point Migeru was making.

by cris0 on Sat Feb 18th, 2012 at 11:37:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Uk and the Netherlands' loud yelling to the contrary notwithstanding Iceland made it clear very early that it only considered Icelandic domestic savers guaranteed; and afaik those were compensated to the legal limit.

Yeah, except that under the relevant international treaties and domestic law, domestic and foreign depositors are equally covered by depositor insurance. Because depositor insurance is based on the country the bank lives in, not the country the depositor lives in.

That's an insane rule, of course, but no more insane than expecting Greece to pay for Germany's export subsidies.

If an ex post facto law can change a default into a not-default, then I propose that Greece et al introduce such a law stating that all government debt issued prior to such and such date is payable in Monopoly money.

Problem solved!

But if you still don't like the Icelandic example, you can have Argentina, Russia and 1920s Germany as examples of the world not ending just because you go with the Argentina Alternative.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Feb 18th, 2012 at 11:56:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So where do you think money comes from? Some wizard shitting gold ingots?
Or would you agree that it is created by the Central Bank?
by generic on Sat Feb 18th, 2012 at 08:15:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, it's actually created by the commercial banks. In the short run, the Central Bank just accommodates it.

Otherwise the "real economy" would be swimming in money from the ECB's "nonstandard liquidity measures". Instead, the ECB's liquidity is ending up... as excess bank reserves at the ECB.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 18th, 2012 at 08:54:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
True but all state debt must be bought with CB money so I don't think it is misleading to say that all the money we are talking about here is created by the CB.
by generic on Sat Feb 18th, 2012 at 09:07:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's quite possible that the announcement of 3-year liquidity auctions, the second of which will take place at the end of the current month, is responsible for the drop in bond yields in recent peripheral bond auctions (Spain and Italy, mostly). After all, banks know in advance they'll be able to turn the bonds into cash.

However, none of this liquidity is free or cheap, despite the low interest rate (you have to take into account the valuation haircut for collateral).

See Why Deutsche Bank Avoids The LTRO

Sometimes, there is news that isn't what it seems. Today, we got one of those: Deutsche Bank (DB) saying that it didn't take advantage of the LTRO due to its wish to keep its reputation.

...

So German public debt yields 0.2%, Deutsche Bank would be losing money on it if it decided to buy and deliver such debt at the LTRO. This means that for Deutsche Bank to make money on the LTRO, they would need to buy debt from the troubled countries, which at this point obviously no bank official wants to increase exposure to.

So the LTRO is a way for banks to make money, but one that works mostly only for the periphery, troubled, countries and their banks. And Deutsche Bank isn't avoiding it because of its reputation; it is avoiding it because it doesn't want more exposure to the sovereign troubles, and there is no money in it otherwise.



tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 18th, 2012 at 09:41:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The historical experience is that states can access the international money markets again after 18-24 months. See, e.g. Russia, Iceland and Argentina.

Besides, states only need to borrow to fund their current accounts deficit. Which, when you default on all foreign debt, means your trade deficit.

So yeah, a year or two of fuel rationing, and then they're in the clear. So far, Greece has suffered two solid years of far greater arbitrary cruelties in pursuit of an economic theology that has been wrong about everything of any importance for the last two hundred years.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Feb 18th, 2012 at 09:35:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It might surprise you, but history didn't start in 2002 or 1999.

Indeed. The recent episode of (West-)German mercantilist wage suppression began in 1991.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Feb 18th, 2012 at 09:44:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Speaking of 1991, if German "solidarity" was compatible with the destruction of the East German economy, a fortiori there's no problem with doing the same with the Eurozone doing the same to Greece.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 18th, 2012 at 09:47:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The same and worse.
by Upstate NY on Sat Feb 18th, 2012 at 10:28:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Which could have been avoided if East German salaries and fortunes had been repressed, by for example swithcing 2 Eastmarks for 1 Deutschmark.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Mon Feb 20th, 2012 at 01:11:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
True, but if the Bundesrepublik had had even a half-assed industrial policy for the East, the salaries would have recovered in short order.

The fortunes would not, of course. My heart bleeds for them.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Feb 20th, 2012 at 02:25:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure, I agree. Salaries would have climbed back up at the pace East German industry had modernized, just like in Poland, Czech republic and so on.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Mon Feb 20th, 2012 at 02:29:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
'Ways and ways' are a matter of priorities. Who takes the hit. The wealthy or the workers? Germany wanted to reunify, but not at the expense of the wealthy and powerful.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Feb 20th, 2012 at 02:53:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As it was, the BuBa retaliated against Kohl by being extra hawkish, which was a contributing factor to the 1992 crisis which ejected the Pound and the Lira (and nearly the Franc) from the ERM.

tens of millions of people stand to see their lives ruined because the bureaucrats at the ECB don't understand introductory economics -- Dean Baker
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 20th, 2012 at 03:13:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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