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That would be a very strange business model. Take cash from customers, put the cash in a vault, pay the customer. Seems highly unprofitable. Why in the world would anyone go into such a business?

Profit comes from giving people loans. Deposits are a way to get people in through the door so you can sell them the loan.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Feb 28th, 2012 at 06:52:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Generating 74 percent of total payments related
income, current accounts (known as
DDA in the United States) are the core of
the European payments business. In 2007,
retail current accounts contributed €39 billion
in profit, mainly from interest on balances,
out of total payments-related profit
of €68 billion. Corporate accounts added
another €11 billion.

http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/Financial_Services/Knowledge_Highlights/Recent_Reports/~/media /Reports/Financial_Services/FS_Current%20accounts%20in%20Europe_MoP7.ashx

We are currently in a weird situation where banks do not have many places to invest deposits profitably.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/25/business/banks-flooded-with-cash-they-cant-profitably-use.html?pag ewanted=all

But your model of how depository banks work is wrong.

by rootless2 on Tue Feb 28th, 2012 at 07:59:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But your model of how depository banks work is wrong.

Not that I expect you to revise that, but anyway, here are two post you could read about it.

Naked Capitalism: Banks are not reserve constrained

Some people still believe in the money multiplier taught in old economic textbooks that fractional reserve banking has banks taking deposits, multiplying them as much as possible, subject to the reserve ratio, and making a much larger amount loans. That is not how it works. In practice, banks don't wait for the reserves to be available to issue loans. They make loans first and then borrow the reserves in the interbank market. The loans come first, not the reserves.

Banks are never constrained by reserves or reserve ratios. Banks are capital constrained. In our fiat money system, the central bank uses reserves in the system to help the it hit a target interest rate. So, the central bank provides the system with enough reserves to meet any reserve ratio at its target rate. The reserves are about helping set interest rates, not about pyramiding money on a reserve base.

Understanding this should also help you understand why QE has been a boon for financial speculation but a bust in the real economy:

Steve Keen's Debtwatch: Dude! Where's My Recovery? (June 11th, 2011)
Lest it be said that I'm parodying neoclassical economics, or relying on what lesser lights believe when the leaders of the profession know better, here are two apposite quotes from Ben Bernanke and Paul Krugman.

...

They are profoundly wrong on this point because neoclassical economists do not understand how money is created by the private banking system--despite decades of empirical research to the contrary, they continue to cling to the textbook vision of banks as mere intermediaries between savers and borrowers.

This is bizarre, since as long as 4 decades ago, the actual situation was put very simply by the then Senior Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Alan Holmes. Holmes explained why the then faddish Monetarist policy of controlling inflation by controlling the growth of Base Money had failed, saying that it suffered from "a naive assumption" that:

the banking system only expands loans after the [Federal Reserve] System (or market factors) have put reserves in the banking system. In the real world, banks extend credit, creating deposits in the process, and look for the reserves later. The question then becomes one of whether and how the Federal Reserve will accommodate the demand for reserves. In the very short run, the Federal Reserve has little or no choice about accommodating that demand; over time, its influence can obviously be felt. (Alan R. Holmes, 1969, p. 73; emphasis added)
The empirical fact that "loans create deposits" means that the change in the level of private debt is matched by a change in the level of money, which boosts aggregate demand. The level of private debt therefore cannot be ignored--and the fact that neoclassical economists did ignore it (and, with the likes of Greenspan running the Fed, actively promoted its growth) is why this is no "garden variety" downturn.
Yes, Dorothy, it's turtles all the way down and no, we're not in Kansas any more.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 06:16:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But that is addressing a very different point. That bank lending is not limited strictly by deposits does not imply banks don't need any capital or that they do not rely on low cost deposits as a source of capital. Goldman-Sachs is selling CD notes, FDIC insured CD notes, precisely to raise capital.  Those deposits are a source of cash which can then be turned into other assets.

Do you think McKinsey is just making it up? Do you think that Citibank has $1trillion in notes just sitting in a vault?

by rootless2 on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 08:14:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And again: That is arbitrage against the discount window, not against Goldman's lending.

If Goldman had no solvent customers to lend to, they would still be issuing those. Because they are not issuing them to fund lending, they are issuing them to arbitrage against the discount window (or the interbank market, but that comes to the same thing in the final analysis).

Now, it is certainly possible - in principle - for the central bank to create a high enough spread between the support rate and the main refinancing rate that the absence of solvent customers would disincentivise banks from accepting deposits. But that's not the case today, has not been the case historically, and there is no obvious reason for the central bank to ever do so in the future.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 08:58:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Deposits are not "low cost". Especially not now in a "liquidity trap".

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 09:28:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They aren't? Seems my bank is paying a negative real interest rate on my deposits. Seems cheap to me.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 10:09:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But the central bank is paying them a negative real interest rate on their excess reserves, and demanding a negative real interest rate on their rediscounts.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 10:23:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So why don't they increase lending to reduce excess reserves? Because I suppose that's why those reserves are called "excess"?

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Thu Mar 1st, 2012 at 05:34:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Because they prefer to lend the cash to the ECB at 0.25% than to the "real economy".

But I repeat myself

We're in a liquidity crisis and banks want to be in an all-cash asset position.
I wonder what would happen if the ECB set the deposit rate (remuneration on excess reserves) to a negative nominal rate.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 1st, 2012 at 05:41:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wow, that was a real brain freeze on my part. :P

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Thu Mar 1st, 2012 at 06:05:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Now you know where the LTRO is ending up: excess reserves.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 1st, 2012 at 08:15:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Soooo... why don't the ECB lower their rates on excess reserves to zero? Or even a negative nominal number? Sure, banks might just then have all that borrowed cash sitting in their electronic vaults (instead of in the electronic vaults of the ECB), but they'll have at least some increased incentives to lend.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Thu Mar 1st, 2012 at 10:03:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Soooo... why don't the ECB lower their rates on excess reserves to zero?

For all practical purposes they have.

They don't do it permanently, because the remuneration rate for excess reserves sets the floor under the interbank rate. Which the CB wants to do if it wants to conduct active interest rate policy. It shouldn't do that IMO (I favour a zero interest rate policy and conducting monetary policy at the exchange rate and margin requirements instead), but that's a subject for another time.

Or even a negative nominal number?

Then the banks would go all-cash. As in, demand a big pile of € 100 bills that they could actually lock in their physical vault. Unless you go full Geselian currency, you can't beat the zero bound on nominal interest rates.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Mar 2nd, 2012 at 04:58:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You know, I think I've learnt as much or more reading the ET comment threads than I have my text books.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Thu Mar 1st, 2012 at 10:05:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Though I suppose there is one more place LTRO money is going beside excess reserves: Spanish banks buying Spanish sovereign debt, Portuguese banks buying Portuguese sovereign debt, Italian banks buying Italian sovereign debt, and so on. They'll all go down anyway if their sovereign defaults, as they already hold so much domestic sovereign debt. So they might as well double down and buy more, especially as the ECB is printing money for them to do it. A little upside, no downside.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Thu Mar 1st, 2012 at 10:11:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And then they are repoing the bonds for cash at the LTRO and putting the cash in excess reserves.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 1st, 2012 at 11:19:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can they use that cash to buy even more periphery sovereign bonds, and then repo those bonds for even more cash, and then use that cash... and so on and so on?

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Fri Mar 2nd, 2012 at 06:34:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Mar 2nd, 2012 at 06:46:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wow. That's brilliant. There really are turtles all the way down.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Fri Mar 2nd, 2012 at 07:27:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, it's called central bank monetization of sovereign debt is illegal but not if it's mediated by private banks. Also known as transsubstantiation religious bollocks.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Mar 2nd, 2012 at 07:30:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Shhhh! Someone Serious might hear you!

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Fri Mar 2nd, 2012 at 07:32:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Transsubstantiation stands on not a few outsize turtles...
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Mar 2nd, 2012 at 08:09:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Or canards, me duck.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Mar 2nd, 2012 at 08:56:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Draghi's comments on the press conference today got me thinking a bit more.

14. 23 Some fascinating comments from Draghi -- delivered with obvious relish -- on what he sees as the real potential benefits of the LTRO to the real economy. He stresses that the number of banks tapping the cheap three year finance jumped from some 500 in December to 800 this time. Many of the new takers were small banks in Germany and elsewhere.

    I would love to read you the places, the towns, the villages where these banks are but often they would be the only bank in towns so they could be identified. But this tells me one thing - this money is now closer to the small and medium-sized businesses than it was before. I'm not saying this money will necessarily go to SMEs but it is certainly closer. We have this in mind because 80 per cent of eurozone employment is SMEs.


Isn't Draghi right here, that LTRO money could actually end up in real investment?

Imagine a fundamentally solvent European bank, ie a bank without periphery sovereign debt all over its balance sheet. Imaging that this bank has a number of customers who want to borrow money for certain projects, say a mine or a wind power project. Given the risk for the bank inherent in the project, the bank want the money bank back in three years, and a margin of at least 10 %. The bank can currently raise money at a cost of 4 %, and hence demand an interest rate of 14 % on the loan to issue it. This rate of interest turns the net present value of the project negative, so no loan is made and the project doesn't happen.

Imagine instead that the bank pledges some of its quality assets to the ECB and gets to borrow at 1 %. Hence, they only demand 11 % interest from the developer, which turns the NPV positive, the money is lent, the project happens and demand increases.

Or am I missing something here?

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Thu Mar 8th, 2012 at 11:47:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't Draghi right here, that LTRO money could actually end up in real investment?

It's not really the LTRO money. The key here is 8 December 2011 - ECB announces measures to support bank lending and money market activity

The NCBs are allowed, as a temporary solution, to accept as collateral for Eurosystem credit operations additional performing credit claims that satisfy specific eligibility criteria. The responsibility entailed in the acceptance of such credit claims will be borne by the NCB authorising their use. Details of the criteria for the use of credit claims will be announced in due course.
I.e., banks could potentially give loans and use those loans as collateral for liquidity directly with their national central bank, not just at the LTROs but at the weekly liquidity auctions.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 8th, 2012 at 12:05:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, shouldn't that work in some cases, and give lower interest rate costs to companies, and hence make more projects NPV-positive?

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Thu Mar 8th, 2012 at 12:09:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No reason why it shouldn't. See my Rediscovering Minsky's wheel, one pundit at a time (May 9th, 2011) and JakeS' The trouble with [talking about] banking (May 13th, 2011) for more on that.

Also, Steve Keen's Dude! Where's My Recovery?

This is bizarre, since as long as 4 decades ago, the actual situation was put very simply by the then Senior Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Alan Holmes. Holmes explained why the then faddish Monetarist policy of controlling inflation by controlling the growth of Base Money had failed, saying that it suffered from "a naive assumption" that:
The banking system only expands loans after the [Federal Reserve] System (or market factors) have put reserves in the banking system. In the real world, banks extend credit, creating deposits in the process, and look for the reserves later. The question then becomes one of whether and how the Federal Reserve will accommodate the demand for reserves. In the very short run, the Federal Reserve has little or no choice about accommodating that demand; over time, its influence can obviously be felt. (Alan R. Holmes, 1969, p. 73; emphasis added)
The empirical fact that "loans create deposits" means that the change in the level of private debt is matched by a change in the level of money, which boosts aggregate demand. The level of private debt therefore cannot be ignored--and the fact that neoclassical economists did ignore it (and, with the likes of Greenspan running the Fed, actively promoted its growth) is why this is no "garden variety" downturn.

In all the post-WWII recessions on which Lazear's regression was based, the downturn ended when the growth of private debt turned positive again and boosted aggregate demand. This of itself is not a bad thing: as Schumpeter argued decades ago, in a well-functioning capitalist system, the main recipients of credit are entrepreneurs who have an idea, but not the money needed to put it into action:

[I]n so far as credit cannot be given out of the results of past enterprise ... it can only consist of credit means of payment created ad hoc, which can be backed neither by money in the strict sense nor by products already in existence...

It provides us with the connection between lending and credit means of payment, and leads us to what I regard as the nature of the credit phenomenon... credit is essentially the creation of purchasing power for the purpose of transferring it to the entrepreneur, but not simply the transfer of existing purchasing power." (Joseph Alois Schumpeter, 1934, pp. 106-107)



There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 8th, 2012 at 03:42:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But there is an important point insofar as the ECBuBa keeps pretending that it's going to yank away the unlimited tender weekly liquidity before the interbank market has completely unfrozen. And some of the members are crazy enough to actually do it, so it's a threat that has to be taken seriously.

This ensures that the liquidity for a mid-term project won't suddenly disappear in a poof of neo-Hayekian idiocy.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Mar 8th, 2012 at 05:33:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, can they call in the cash at anytime? The repo is over three years, isn't it? That is, ECB only has the right to demand the cash back after three years, not earlier than that.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Fri Mar 9th, 2012 at 10:31:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Precisely.

Mig argued that they had already done what you said they were doing when they expanded the eligibility for the MRO.

I agree with you that this has a greater scope, precisely because it can not be revoked with a week's notice. But I also agree with Mig that the scope is not as much greater as the BuBa (wants to) believe.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Mar 9th, 2012 at 11:54:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Eurointelligence Daily Briefing: Weidmann says Target 2 imbalances a major concern - calls on Draghi to change collateral rules (01.03.2012)
Angelo Baglioni

Writing in Lavoce, Angelo Baglioni writes that very little of trillion euro LTRO shows is likely to end up with the real economy (a point also made by Fitch Ratings yesterday). He said the sole effect of this  operation is to support government bonds. If the ECB were to assume the role of lender of last resort, it would favour a policy to strengthen the traditional banking lending channel. As it stands, however, the economy continues to be weighed down by credit constrains, which will exacerbate the recession.



There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 1st, 2012 at 05:58:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
McKinsey is saying the opposite of what you want to imply:
Current accounts are the cornerstone of the European payments business.
Consumer deposits are part of the payments and clearing system, as JakeS has pointed out.
They provide a stable and inexpensive source of funding for banks,
They're talking about current account, not savings accounts or time deposits. Current accounts don't generally pay interest, therefore they are a cheap source of liquidity ("funding" - see also JakeS's comments) in the amount of their average balance. In the US, checking accounts generally have quite stiff maintenance fees unless minimum balances are maintained. But savings accounts or time deposits pay higher interests and are therefore more expensive. Also, some banks aggressively advertise demand deposits (current accounts) paying high interest rates. Those are an expensive source of funding.
and interest on balances provides the major portion of payments-related income in Europe.
If that's bank income, it must refer to interest charged on negative balances.
As banks' stickiest product, current accounts are an excellent basis for selling other products and building a broad relationship with a customer.
Also mentioned in mine and others' comments
Important challenges loom, however. Even as overall payments revenue is projected to grow from 30 to 35 percent of total banking revenues in Europe between 2007 and 2012, income from current accounts is under attack.
This [bank] income from current accounts must be from charges and fees.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 09:50:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So your claim is that banks in Europe generate 30% of their revenue from charges and fees on current accounts?
by rootless2 on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 10:49:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What is your mechanism for banks to generate revenue from deposits?

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 10:52:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They lend it.

0% current account deposit of 100 zlotys
5% mortgage for 100 zlotys

Profit!

by rootless2 on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 11:12:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The revenue is from the loan, not from the deposit.

And as we've pointed out repeatedly loans don't require deposit. They create deposits.

If I have 100 of your zloty and I lend 100 zloty to Jake, I credit 100 zloty to Jake's account so now you still have your 100 zloty deposit and Jake has a spanking new 100 zloty deposit. So my loan to Jake doubles my deposits from 100 to 200. I am not loaning to Jake from your 100. Your 100 are still available to you, as are Jake's 100.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 11:15:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In order to lend the money to Jake I must meet a reserve cash requirement. Where does that cash come from?
by rootless2 on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 11:51:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You can borrow it from another bank. Or you can pledge the loan to Jake as collateral at the central bank in exchange for cash with which to satisfy the reserve requirements. Or you can take deposits.

But you only have to satisfy the reserve requirement after Jake already has his loan. In extremis you will borrow the reserves from the central bank at a penalty rate.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 11:58:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, you have up to a month to find those regulatory reserves, because regulatory compliance only requires that your average position over the month in question is in excess of the requirement.

But that's actually incidental, because you make the loan to me, and turn around and rediscount the note with the CB on the very same day.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 12:02:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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