Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Sorry that I don't bite the poll results but it's just experience. It's a small country and we know the party and robber baron commitments of every single polling company and how they use poll "results" to manipulate voters. And disenchantent voters like to claim they vote otherwise, but in the end they vote one of the two large parties (78% combined in 2009). Now newer polls "say" that the two parties are close to 33% each, while DemAr is all of a sudden very low. In the end we'll get a ND around 40% (and 151+ seats) and a Pasok at around 30% (all of a sudden, after the election of the new party leader). And then business as usual...

"Eurozone leaders have turned a 50bn Greek solvency problem into a 1,000bn existential crisis for the European Union." David Miliband
by Kostis Papadimitriou on Wed Mar 21st, 2012 at 09:59:48 AM EST
Actually I'd place a very large bet against the possibility that a. PASOK will top 20% and/or b. ND 30% :-) The reason that I trust Public Issue on these things is because they are a partner of the Alafouzos media group. This is a media group more pro-troika than the troika itself, often to comical extreme. I think it would be inconceivable that they would massage these numbers in any other way besides in the direction of augmenting the pro-IMF parties. Yet they consistently don't. My environment is full of PASOK 2009 voters. Among those under 70, 9 out of 10 of these people are definitely not going to vote PASOK, and among those under 40 none at all, indeed most are active supporters of one or the other left party or PASOK splinter.

I have not seen any poll that claims that either former "large"party is at 33%, and that includes the ND private opinion polls, that I have had a peek at. Indeed apart from a few outliers, most polls are broadly consistent with each other and converge on roughly the same picture.

Having said that: The one thing all pollsters seem to agree on is that this is an unprecedented political turmoil and that it is very difficult to make any predictions with great confidence.

See for example a new poll from VPRC, (again final vote estimate):

ND 22,5% (-5% from last month)
PASOK 12,5 % (+1,5% from last month)
KKE 12,5% (-1,5%)
SYRIZA 12% (-1,5%)
Anexartiti Ellines 11% (N/A)!
Dimokratiki Aristera 11,5% (-4,5%%)
LAOS 3% (-1,5%)
Chryssi Avgi 3,5% (+1%)
Greens 2,5% (-1%)
Dimokratiki Symmakhia 2% (even)


The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Wed Mar 21st, 2012 at 12:23:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So does that mean AE drew voters all from leftist parties?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Mar 21st, 2012 at 02:09:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No ND mainly, along with the left parties (KKE and SYRIZA) - but that's redirecting former ND voters towards them, probably. DimAr probably lost to PASOK (what with the new leader and such) as well. AE are crippling NDs chances of forming a government even with PASOK

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Wed Mar 21st, 2012 at 02:52:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Occasional Series