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Let's not forget the other two states with early elections (both of which had their previous elections in 2009):

  • In Saarland, where a CDU-FDP-Greens "Jamaica Coalition" failed on the disintegration of the FDP, and where the vote will be held this Sunday, things seem to head towards a CDU-SPD Grand Coalition: the last polls have CDU and SPD level at 33-34% (a big gain for the SPD, likely mostly from the Left party), the Left Party at 15-16% (a 5-6-point loss), the Pirates at 6%, the Greens (who at least don't run with the leader who made Jamaica a reality and who had too close ties to the FDP) right at the 5% limit, FDP at 2-3% (hopefully failing).

  • In Schleswig-Holstein, where a CDU-FDP coalition (matching the federal one) won elections only thanks to the unproportional elements of the election system, a lawsuit of the Greens and left-leaning Danish minority party SSW won a ruling forcing a change of the election system and new elections. These will be held a week before the NRW one in early May. The latest poll indicates a comfortable red-green majority: CDU 34% (slight gain), SPD 33% (big gain vs. last elections, ultimately at the expense of the FDP), Greens 15% (slight gain), Pirates right at the 5% limit, SSW steady at 4% (but they are guaranteed an exception), FDP and the Left Party would drop out at 4% resp. 3%.

In short, these two elections could further weaken the federal government's sway over the upper house of Germapny's parliament, the Bundesrat, which consists of representatives of the state governments (which are obliged to vote together even if from different parties in a coalition, thus the SPD in a Grand Coalition could at least force an abstaining).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Mar 19th, 2012 at 11:14:06 AM EST

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