Well who are we to doubt the German economic establishment? They clearly know what they are tliking about as evidenced by Germany's success. Like in 2005 when they told us that Germany would enter a long period of stagnation:

Kolumne: Thomas Fricke - Huch, wir sind Wirtschaftswunder | FTD.de		Column: Thomas Fricke - Oops, we are economic miracle | FTD.de
Die Beschäftigung werde "in den kommenden Jahren bestenfalls stagnieren", orakelte im November 2005 Jörg Krämer, damals Chefökonom der HVB, heute bei der Commerzbank - weil Angela Merkels Große Koalition, die damals gerade angetreten war, "durchgreifende Arbeitsmarktreformen nicht einmal erwogen" habe. Jetzt werde der "Fluch der unterlassenen Reformen" über uns kommen, versprach Krämer. Ähnlich klang's bei Rürups Sachverständigen: Die Haushaltslage sei "desolat", das geringe Wachstumspotenzial behindere "eine durchgreifende Erholung".		The employment level would "stagnate in the coming years, at best," Jörg Krämer, then chief economist of the HVB , now at Commerzbank prophetised in November 2005 - because Angela Merkel's grand coalition government, which then had just assumed office, had "not even considered far-reaching labor market reforms." Now the "curse of of the forsaken reforms" will come upon us, promised Krämers. Similar Rürups Sachverständigenrat: The budget situation was "desperate" low growth potential prevents a "sustained recovery".