Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I have to echo Drew here:

  • Day 1: Run on banks, has already happened. It started in 2008 and the whole "Target 2" kerfuffle is actually a result of it.
  • Day 2: Bankruptcy tsunami, is currently happening in the European Periphery, and has run its course in Greece. This has been exacerbated by austerity-motivated selective sovereign default as the public sector prefers to pay bondholders than providers, and stop payments to providers they do because, well, it doesn't trigger CDS...
  • Day 3: Economic paralysis, is on display in Greece.
  • Day 4: Hyperinflation, people are beginning to turn to barter in Greece and more and more proposals for local currencies are being made across the EU.
  • Day 5: the last [first?] day of forever, is also on display in Greece.

Therefore, how does EU membership make a difference? The process may be different, but the results are the same. Greece has, for the past 2 years, experienced the economic destruction that leaving the Euro would have caused, but it remains in the Euro. Had it left the Euro and suffered from it for two years, it would be on its way to recovery. As it is, it still hasn't touched bottom even by the Troika's own projections. And when they finally give up and kick Greece out, it will have to endure another two years of pain before things turn around.

Portugal is next, by the way, and I am sorry if this sounds personal but the only reason you can say being part of the EU is not the problem for Portugal or Greece is that you yourself recently took advantage of Portugal's EU membership to escape the sinking periphery boat into the core.

Your the problem [is] rather the lack of solidarity, vision, and courage of those that command [the EU] today sounds a lot like Gandhi's Western Civilisation would be a good idea or the typical quip about such and such place would be great were it not for its inhabitants.

The EU doesn't lack vision or courage, it lacks solidarity. Trichet and Schäuble have been awarded Charlemagne Prizes for their role in this crisis, Trichet has shown considerable vision by correctly predicting a European Commussioner without a budget to spend but with the power to prevent member states from spending. Mario Draghi has a vision for Europe: "the European Social Model is already dead", and the courage to "print" 1 trillion Euros over the Bundesbank's hissy fit, to give to the banks while continuing to strangle the public sector. Merkel has a vision: the era of living beyond our means is over and the necessary pain may last decades.

What the EU doesn't have any more is solidarity. So, fuck this for a lark.

In that sense, I also have to echo cagatacos on the strength of the EU myth. In the prophetic words of JC Juncker, the Euro will outlive us all, which could also be put as the Euro will bury us all.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 08:57:41 AM EST

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