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Well Jerome is right. There have been considerable currency transfers out of Greek banks, but there have been no bank runs. Which is a great mystery actually, as a bank run would be the rational thing at this stage.  If I had euros in a Greek bank account, I'd transfer them out of the country ASAP. There was actually an interesting recent interview with Bengt Dennis, head of the bank of Sweden during the early 90's, where he said that very thing.
   
   
   
-Det som förvånar mig mest är att grekerna inte har stormat bankerna. Det är märkligt. Uttagen har hittills skett i slowmotion. Frågan är vad som händer om det inträffar.

Den euro man tar ut måste väl vara säker?

-Nej, det behöver den inte vara. Regeringen kan bestämma att från klockan 00:00 ett visst datum ska alla eurosedlar och pengar på grekiska bankkonton växlas in till den nya valutan, till en fastställd kurs.

Kan de verkligen göra det?

-En regering kan göra vad som helst. Se på Östtyskland, där fick varje medborgare växla in en viss summa mot D-mark. Men det kommer inte att hända något med Grekland förrän Italien och Spanien står trygga. De är för stora ekonomier för att de ska tillåtas falla. Men ju säkrare de länderna står, desto lättare blir det att släppa Grekland. Det finns en risk för att även Portugal dras med.

- What has surprised me the most is that the Greeks haven't staged a run on their banks. It is strange. The withdrawals have this far happened in slowmotion. The question is what will happen when it [a run on the banks] happens.

But the euro you withdraw [in Greece] must be secure?

- No, it doesn't have to be. The government can decide that from 00:00 a clock at a certain date, all euro notes and money on Greek bank accounts will be exchanged for the new currency, at a certain exchange rate.

Can they really do that?

- A government can do anything. Look as East Germany, where every citizen was allowed to exchange a certain amount for D-marks. But nothing will happen with Greece until Italy and Spain are safe. They are too big economies to be allowed to fail. But the safer those countries become, the easier it will be to drop Greece. There is a risk Portugal as well be dragged down with it.

I really should translate the entire interview as it is really interesting.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 04:40:08 PM EST
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