Hmm, the rumours are that Greece will be out this year, followed shortly after by Portugal (give it 6 months?). Then Ireland will fail to pass the Fiscal Compact in referendum. And Spain is going to follow on Greece's heels with 2 year lag. So, give it 3 years until either France is out or the Bundesbank folds (like they did in 1992/3 - apparently even they were not willing to see the Franc ejected from the ERM, unlike the Pound and the Lira).

That's, of course, in the gradualist view. If Varoufakis is right, the whole thing unravels within 6 months of Greece being shown the door. So, next year?

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman