Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Hmm, the rumours are that Greece will be out this year, followed shortly after by Portugal (give it 6 months?). Then Ireland will fail to pass the Fiscal Compact in referendum. And Spain is going to follow on Greece's heels with 2 year lag. So, give it 3 years until either France is out or the Bundesbank folds (like they did in 1992/3 - apparently even they were not willing to see the Franc ejected from the ERM, unlike the Pound and the Lira).

That's, of course, in the gradualist view. If Varoufakis is right, the whole thing unravels within 6 months of Greece being shown the door. So, next year?

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 06:11:11 PM EST
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Depends on how observant the Portuguese, Spanish and Italian governments are (I have given up hope that France will realise that it has a greater commonality of circumstance with the rest of the deficit countries than with Germany). It is possible that they will see the handwriting on the wall if Greece is sufficiently rudely ejected, and skip the 6-24 months of unnecessary pain.

But this is EPP-PES governments we're talking about. I would not bet money that they have the clarity of vision to find a lit fire on a moonless night.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Mar 18th, 2012 at 08:05:41 AM EST
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