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What do you call the loss of access of French banks to Eurodollar liquidity last August? Also a walk?

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 07:04:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nothing which could not be resolved by timely central bank intervention to maintain financial stability, which after all is the job of central banks.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 07:06:43 PM EST
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You know as well as I do that's not the job of the Bundesbank, or of the ECB as understood by the Bundesbank.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 07:08:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Still, they did intervene and they did resolve the issue.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 07:14:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, yes, as long as it's banks and not sovereigns that are being liquidity-squeezed, it's all right.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 07:16:34 PM EST
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That's a US problem, not a eurozone problem, in that they don't have a banking system that does infrastructure funding and have to rely on outsiders, whom they can on a whim decide are not trustworthy, thereby shooting themselves (and them alone) in the foot in the process. Why should we care whether European banks get access to dollars or not?

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 07:12:05 PM EST
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I beg to differ. The French banks would have keeled over were it not for emergency operations such as this because the ECB itself didn't have enough dollars to backstop the dollar liquidity needs of the French banks once the Eurodollar deposits evaporated.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 07:15:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And the intervention happened. Even a broken clock shows the right time twice a day.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 07:18:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, intervention by the Fed (not by the ECB, but through the ECB, for practical reasons) to save their part of the system.

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 07:22:57 PM EST
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The ECB was not doing their job. What American institutions were being saved, when it was the French banks that had the liquidity problems? Who was rescued from the impending doom of missing payments on USD interest rate swaps?

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 07:26:44 PM EST
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The US money markets were rescued.

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 07:29:40 PM EST
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So, no wrong was going to befall any French institutions after defaulting on their dollar obligations?

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 07:33:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
why the fuck do you keep on putting in my mouth things I haven't said?

Of course they'd be in deep shit, as in officially bankrupt, but then there's nothing preventing their regulator from taking them over and letting creditors live with that - especially foreign creditors in a foreign currency (they'd probably get access to the USD portfolio, which are probably decently sound, and that would actually be settled relatively easily). The  euro-side bankruptcy would be a good thing, by forcing the dezombiefication of the bank, but that would make the wrong people unhappy - again, less of a problem for France, which could nationalize the local bits and just let the international stuff become a bad bank, à la Dexia (where Belgium took back the retail/local bank), but without the state guarantees.


Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 07:44:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Because you keep pretending it was just the US that had a problem here. It was the Europeans who were rescued from default.

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 07:46:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why should we care whether European banks get access to dollars or not?

Hello? <facepalm>

Because they have large asset portfolios denominated in US Dollars which require access to dollar funding?

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 07:18:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Again, why should we care. The only people that would suffer if the European banks could not rollover their dollar funding were the US money markets who lent them these dollars.

Sure, that could turn systemic, but you keep on explaining that central banks have ways to solves systemic problems. and in that case, that would have been the job of the Fed, which is supposedly sane.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 07:25:49 PM EST
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I submit the situation would have been French (not American) banks defaulting on their US Dollar obligations, which is a problem for the Banque de France and by Extension the ECB which had to be rescued by the Fed.

You'll remember Dean Baker's Time for the Fed to Take Over the European Central Bank's Job

In this case the Fed would be intervening in the European economy for the same reason as China - to sustain our domestic economy. If the eurozone collapses, there are no easy tools in the Fed's bag of tricks that will allow it to quickly offset the negative impact on the U.S. economy. It would make far more sense to act preemptively to prevent this disaster from happening. This can be seen as an essential part of its legal mandate to maintain full employment.

Of course this sort of intervention will look horrible from the standpoint of the eurozone countries. It will appear as though they cannot be trusted to manage their own central bank and deal with their own economic affairs.

Unfortunately, this is the case. They have entrusted the continent's most important economic institution to a group of ideological zealots who are infatuated by the sight of low inflation rates even as whole economies collapse in ruins and tens of millions of people needlessly go unemployed.

Perhaps the Europeans will respond to this affront by putting some serious people in charge of the ECB who are committed to maintaining a functioning economy in the eurozone.  If that is the outcome, it will be a win-win for all involved. But if they can't rise to the task, we should not allow the ECB ideologues to wreak havoc on the lives of tens of millions of innocent people in Europe, the developing world and here in the United States.



There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Mar 17th, 2012 at 07:29:36 PM EST
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