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I don't know that anybody ever said that tourists were going to be the main source of patronage, nor that the service requires getting a large share of tourist trips between Orlando and Miami for its success, but if they did, they were just being talking in lazy stereotypes or repeating the hackneyed baseless attacks on the Florida HSR project.

Just like the projections for the Florida  the bulk of the trips on this service will be by Floridians for business, pleasure or family trips. Tourist travel will be a bonus on top of that.

FECI can tailor the frequency to demand, since the main capital cost that is exclusive to the passenger service are the trains themselves, so there's even less "White Elephant" risk than the minimal risk faced by the Florida Express HSR system.

And of course, lots of tourists arrive in Orlando without a car, so the cost of driving to Miami for those tourists includes the cost of a rental car. If they are going to the Disneyworld complex, and then Miami Beach, among the numbers of tourists going to Florida, there will be some who are affluent enough to be able to afford not to drive.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Apr 16th, 2012 at 01:19:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe we're talking past each other here, because these...

pleasure or family trips

...are "tourist" trips.  I assume by tourists, you're thinking of people from other states and countries.  

I'm saying I don't think you're going to see much traffic from Floridians.  A family of four from Coral Gables probably isn't going to take the train.  You might get some traffic from those sorts of people, and perhaps kids who go away to UCF or UM.

It's fine if the lines are basically freight with a few passenger services, and in the long run it's a good investment.  I'm just saying I wouldn't bet on the passenger service being very successful in the near-future.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Apr 16th, 2012 at 05:04:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You are saying that with 3 hour trips between populations centers as big as Miami and Orlando, time-competitive with driving, it will be incapable of attracting 1% to 2% mode share of the total trips between the two population centers.

I think that there is no doubt whatsoever that if run properly with comfortable seating, the usual amenities, and at the promised travel time, it will be able to attract 1% to 2% of the total trips between the two population centers. Indeed, I think it extremely conservative, and it could well attract a 3% to 5% mode share, which would imply not modest operating profits, but quite healthy operating profits.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Apr 16th, 2012 at 05:25:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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