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Here the latest poll from a dutch pollster:

https:/n6.noties.nl/peil.nl

April 22, and they tend to show expected seats in the second chamber, not percentages:

Party  
VVD                 33 Seats (+2)    
PVV                 19 Seats (-5)      
CDA                 11 Seats (-10)
VVD+PVV+CDA         63 Seats (-13)
PvdA                24 Seats (-6)
SP                  30 Seats (+15)
D66                 15 Seats (+5)
Groen Links          5 Seats (-5)
ChristenUnie         6 Seats (+1)
SGP                  3 Seats (+1)
Partij voor de Dieren 3 Seats (+1)
50Plus                1 Seats (+1)

So PVV and PdA suffers, but CDA who already lost the last election, loses most. ChristenUnie and SGP, who are fundamnetalists - I think one protestant, one catholic -, are fine, also PvdD - animals!. GL and D66 seem so swap voters and the SP wins from PdA, CDA and PVV.

The combined left gets 74 seats (PdA, SP, D66, GL), two less then needed.

by IM on Fri Apr 27th, 2012 at 05:33:34 AM EST
SP almost as big as VVD!? Would be nice if it holds until the elections (sadly I doubt it).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Apr 27th, 2012 at 05:59:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Given that this poll precedes the budget negotiations, I wonder what Groen-Links are being punished for?

Is it a case of green concerns being squeezed out by the crisis?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Apr 27th, 2012 at 05:59:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Leadership swop. Much of the 2010 wins were carried by charismatic leader Femke Halsema, she handed over the torch last year to her acolyte, Jolande Sap.

However, Sap quickly lost credits by poor media performance and was key to realising the government's aim of military trainings in Afghanistan - much to the chagrin of the party's members.

by Nomad on Fri Apr 27th, 2012 at 06:08:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Which shouldn't have been surprising to her considering that there are still a few people left from the old cold-war pacifists in her party.
by Wilfred on Tue May 1st, 2012 at 07:41:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The animal-party is also heavily at the left flank, toss them in and there is a razor thin left majority. But if the VVD/liberals come out as the largest party, it'll never happen.

Numbers are not too surprising yet. CDA and Labour were already polling lower than their current seats, SP was already high. Wilders was already trending lower, but has now decreased further. No visible gains for the Greens.

by Nomad on Fri Apr 27th, 2012 at 06:03:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They have a chart. Looks like SP even led the polls recently:



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Apr 27th, 2012 at 06:04:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
ChristenUnie is mainstream Protestant and fairly centerleft on economic issues (though quite conservative on social issues). SGP is hardcore "women belong in the kitchen, being gay is a disease" protestant fundamentalist. The religious Catholic votes used to be part of the CDA and is now one of the main electorates of the PVV. A leftwing coalition with the ChristenUnie might be feasible.
by Anspen on Sun Apr 29th, 2012 at 12:21:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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