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Ireland has a current account deficit, but a trade surplus.

Now, for a normal country, that would mean that after repudiating sufficient amounts of foreign debt, it would have a current accounts surplus. But Ireland is not a normal country, because the difference between trade balance and current accounts balance is driven by expatriation of profits rather than expatriation of interest payments (as is usually the case).

That means they can't default and peg the New Punt to the €, because they can't defend that peg.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat May 5th, 2012 at 04:58:04 PM EST
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