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Greece election day II - Election diary and info | 129 comments (129 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)
Re: Greece election day II (4.00 / 4)
They're sort of in a pickle there, because short of sending a gunboat to the Aegean there's not a whole Hell of a lot they can do that they're not doing already.

Cut off fuel imports, perhaps. Maybe. Unless Russia or China want to dip their toes in the Aegean Sea.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 03:52:00 PM EST
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Re: Greece election day II (4.00 / 2)
Germany could threaten not to lend Greece anymore money which would force Greece into (effective) bankruptcy and halt payments to German banks.

:-)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 04:00:14 PM EST
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Re: Greece election day II (4.00 / 2)
It would be a halt of payments to the ECB and EFSF really.

Private banks are now sub-20% of total Greek debt.

Greece has been flipping back and forth between a primary surplus and a small (.5%) primary deficit the last several quarters. At last announcement I read that they were a couple hundred million in deficit. Again, around .5%. So, after being cutoff, they could presumably hold on and wait a while to see what the reactions would be. After all, they were cut off once before already. They surprised some in the troika by holding off for several months (did they dip into reserves?). One thing that's different this time is that new leadership might not make any payments on debt which would put them in arrears and as well afoul of EU regulations.

by Upstate NY on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 04:18:18 PM EST
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Re: Greece election day II (4.00 / 4)
(Note the emoticon.)

It would be a halt of payments to the ECB and EFSF really.

And anybody should care about that ... why?

One thing that's different this time is that new leadership might not make any payments on debt which would put them in arrears and as well afoul of EU regulations.

Austerians are losing their ability to control events.  When the PIIGS have been joined by Netherlands and - I hope - France in chanting, "We're Not Going to Take It!" the preponderance of power within the EU has shifted and re-writing the regulations becomes possible

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 04:54:02 PM EST
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Re: Greece election day II (4.00 / 3)
They certainly can threaten to stop any liquidity to Greece, collapsing all Greek banks.... and this is, I think, the threat the Greeks would receive.

So... if the election turn out as good as they might seem now, no austerity but all greek banks going under... what is the next step? out of the euro?... I guess.. or what? A country without banks nor savings... that would be interesting to see.

Am I wrong?

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 05:19:10 PM EST
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Re: Greece election day II (none / 1)
Once out of the Euro, they would be free to recapitalise their banks with newly printed money. Or by telling their creditors that it's just too bad to be the creditor of an insolvent institution.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 05:26:40 PM EST
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Re: Greece election day II (none / 0)
Absolutely.. that's why I can not imagine  the EBC implenting the threat as any other thing that the signal that Greece is out of the euro...

I guess your answer is implicit. :) I am right.. there is no way Greece can stay in the euro without any bank. They need an immediate capitalization.. adn for this (if the ECB doe snot provide it) they must do it with local currency.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 05:31:20 PM EST
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Re: Greece election day II (4.00 / 5)
There is no way that Greece can remain in the Euro as currently constituted.

Of course neither can Germany remain in the Euro as currently constituted, because the Euro as currently constituted is built to fail.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 05:44:49 PM EST
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Re: Greece election day II (4.00 / 2)
And is increasingly visibly doing what it was built to do and, unfortunately, taking maximum casualties with it. The sooner this process is ended the better for all.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon May 7th, 2012 at 01:10:19 AM EST
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Re: Greece election day II (none / 1)
If they do the German government will rip a $23 billion hole in the Balance Sheets of German banks and $7.43 billion in exports.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 05:55:30 PM EST
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Greece election day II - Election diary and info | 129 comments (129 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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