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Absolutely.

I think you write down my view better than myself...

But since everybody expects the other to follow a predictive path then, probably, no timplementing any austerity measure can be seen as the signal of Greece leaving the euro.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 05:33:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If Greece is kicked out of the Euro, the other dominoes will follow. The question is where the buck stops for Germany. Back in 1992, it stopped at France but not at Italy or, more predictably, Britain. Today, it might still stop at France, but not at Portugal, Ireland, Spain or Italy.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:24:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Euro is unlikely to survive successively immiserating and then jettisoning Portugal, Spain and Italy.

That process will make it too obvious to too many people both that the Euro is a project of, by and for Germany and that there is perfectly viable growth path outside the Eurozone.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:32:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So, then, maybe the buck stops with Spain and Italy this time around.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:54:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That depends on whether Germany shares the above analysis. It is possible that they have bought into their own propaganda. Or, what comes to the same thing, find it impolitic to go against the racist rhetoric they have encouraged.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 07:14:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Italy can survive, I think, as they have a primary surplus, and the ECB is both able and willing to push Italian rates down as long as Italy can keep a balanced budget, which it can.

Spain is the big problem, and the Eurozone and Union will live or die with the fate of Spain. Where is El Cid when we need him?

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Wed May 9th, 2012 at 09:05:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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