Top Diaries

Scanning the Party positions (as given in the diary) and looking at these numbers you'll be doing this again in a couple of months.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 12:44:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You're not taking into account the 50-seat bonus to the biggest party.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 02:09:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You're right. I forgot about that.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 02:15:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: First Exit Poll (4.00 / 11)

At this point even with the bonus, the two parties ΑΡΕ at around ~151 seats. If LAOS makes it in they'll be at around 156. This is the kind of popular minority government that I know how to topple ;-)

If it wasn't for the bloody nazis this is as close to perfect as I can imagine. Check out the interior ministry results. Their prognostication with 50% of results in, is currently

ND - 19,2 - 109 seats
SYRIZA 16,3 - 50
PASOK 13,6 42
AnEl 10,5 - 32
KKE 8,5 26
Nazis 7,0 22
Dem Ar 6,0 19

The Greens and Laos will be close to the 3% limit and possibly over (and thus seats will change), Dem Alliance will be close to 3% and possibly under... LAOS is a possible two-party system ally

I'll be back later. Off to celebrate!

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 02:44:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: First Exit Poll (4.00 / 4)

Congratulations

by rootless2 on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 02:49:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: First Exit Poll (4.00 / 11)

The failure of PASOK to get even 15 % of the vote should be remembered every time someone claims that all left-wing parties need to do to win is to move to the "center."

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 03:05:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sometimes there just happens to be a gaping abyss in the center.

by generic on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 04:16:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Or that the position of the German Finance Minister is not representative of the center of the Greek electorate.

Maybe a lesson here for Ireland too.

by rootless2 on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 04:22:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

One could conclude that, if one defined the center as the place you are when you win elections.

That's called "begging the question," and is generally frowned upon outside certain Jesuit orders.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 04:27:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

But actually... (4.00 / 2)

... let's ask a different question. What would have happened today if Syriza had played nice like good third parties are supposed to do, endorsed Pasok and not run "spoiler" lists?

My guess is that you'd be looking at a clear pro-Troika majority government or a much bigger nazi party. And that's an inclusive "or."

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 04:31:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Of course that would have been a stupid tactic - something on the order of the French left boycotting the elections so that Hollande would have lost. The principle should be to gain political power where possible, not to lose it.

by rootless2 on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 04:32:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: But actually... (none / 1)

And what would have been your advice to Syriza in the 2009 election, and the five elections before that one? Given the information available at the time. Would the 50-seat bonus to the biggest party awarded by Greek electoral law influence your answer?

And if they had followed that advice, would they have been able to contest this election effectively?

The party apparatus required to run an effective election campaign does not spring into existence the moment a window of opportunity appears. It must be built in the years before that opportunity appears, which means it must be built during election cycles where running "spoiler" candidates carries short-term costs.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 04:41:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

i don't claim to know a general answer- this depends on specifics of specific situations. My complaint in the Spanish elections was in reaction to a "vote for neither" program which is not a plan for building an alternative.

by rootless2 on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 05:16:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: But actually... (none / 1)

I don't claim that a general answer exists. I'm just asking you to assess a concrete scenario, Syriza 1995-2009. Because if you find that the strategy you would have recommended for them would have resulted in them not being able to contest this election effectively, then that would suggest that your way of developing recommendations overstates the stability of the centrist consensus.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 05:24:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Given their success, I would have recommended that they proceed with the strategy they followed - of course.

Since one is usually not in possession of such knowledge of the future, the general rule I propose is that one must have a plausible strategy for either building a third party or influencing the existing major parties depending on circumstance. And in particular the strategy of "let them know our displeasure by making a protest vote or not voting" is one that has been shown to not work.

by rootless2 on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:02:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

But that was not, in fact, the recommendation you did make when IU was in a situation very nearly identical situation to Syriza 2009 in the last Spanish election. You recommended that they refrain from running spoiler candidates, due to the moderately non-proportional Spanish electoral system. In fact, you got quite prissy about their failure to hop aboard PSOE's handbasket.

If your reasoning was valid in Spain in 2011, why was it not valid in Greece in 2009? Conversely, if it was invalid in Greece in 2009, why was it valid in Spain in 2011?

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:18:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well, it's certainly possible that i was wrong about Spain or am wrong about Greece, but I don't see how the situation was very nearly identical. Syriza began as a coalition that intended to and had good prospects of winning seats. The formation of Syriza was itself a rejection of the "run symbolic candidates" theory - in my understanding of the history. On the other hand, the "indignants" in Spain who advocated abstaining or randomly voting for some minor party did not provide any plan beyond registering discontent.

by rootless2 on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:31:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

We're talking about voting for IU, not about the "indignants".

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:35:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You lumped voting IU in with "randomly voting for some minor party." With great fanfare and a number of rude insinuations. Then claimed vindication when they scored somewhere in the same neighbourhood Pasok just did, and as PSOE will in the next election.

Which is, incidentally, around four times what Syriza got in 2009.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:38:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

discussion of the Spanish vote swing 2008-2011.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:44:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: But actually... (4.00 / 2)

SYRIZA was a protest vote until this election. But without the previous string of protest votes, they could not have grown to contest this election effectively.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:22:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Did they not win seats in every election? Were they not formed explicitly to combat fragmentation of the left into ineffectual protest parties?

by rootless2 on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:35:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: But actually... (none / 1)

They used to poll below 5% - in those conditions, we-re presuming you would have advocated voting "usefully" for the hegemonic party of the left, PASOK, because it was the only one with a prospect of winning - and under the Greek system with its 50 seat bonus for the plurality, the second and third parties can have twice as many votes as the first and half as many seats. So you can only help a left coalition by voting for the biggest left party.

Unless we're misunderstanding your ideas about strategic voting.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:40:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Of course, if you assess that a pro-austerity, pro-Troika PASOK whose stated intention is to form a coalition with ND is not left then there was no way to make a "left coalition government" happen.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:47:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

http://server3.eurotrib.com/story/2011/11/18/19330/952#140

I had to look it up

Voting for SNP or even De Linke is very different from voting for Ralph Nader in the US or for a splinter party in most of Spain. I'm not against that at all. In fact, even in the US, there are places where third parties can and are effective. New York's Working Family Party is quite interesting. If you have a third party that is in position to win seats - why not? My point was that the "plague on both houses" argument in favor of either sitting it out or voting symbolically, is a common argument. No Les Votes reads a lot like Michael Moore. I don't think it's a coincidence.

by rootless2 on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:50:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: First Exit Poll (4.00 / 2)

Félicitations, talos !

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 03:09:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

65.85% counted (is it normal to progress this slowly? Am I paranoid?)

ND - 19.80 - 111 seats
SYRIZA 16.25 - 50
PASOK 13.64 42
AnEl 10.50 - 32
KKE 8.37 - 26
Nazis 6.88 - 21
Dem Ar 6.04 - 18
LAOS 2.86 - 0
Greens 2.86 - 0

Are there counting trends in Greece like cities reporting last? Something that could yet boost the Greens?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 06:30:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Is there any chance of an opportunist anti-troika coup in the rest-PASOK after this crushing election defeat?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 07:08:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

good question.

by rootless2 on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 07:32:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Can we dream of SYRIZA ahead of ND??? That would be cool.

In Portugal we seem to be divided between neoliberals (in power), PASOK and KKE type of parties. So, relax, worse is possible (OTOH we have a stable course: obey Germany). I think today is where we split courses. All in all, I would prefer to be Greek (though you seem to be headed for a clusterf.ck of instability)

Good luck...

by cagatacos on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 12:44:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: First Exit Poll (4.00 / 2)

The pollsters are split. It is very deifinitely not impossible that SYRIZA will be the first party. On the other hand it is not impossible that it will be third. The nazis might be over 8%...

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 12:56:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I just heard on Spanish TV that ND was getting 20% (low for a 1st party!) and SYRYZA were second at 18%. Wow.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 01:50:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Seat allocations:

ND 45 - 115
SYRIZA 41-110
PASOK 37 - 105
KKE 19 - 31
An.El. 26 - 39
DIMAR 12 - 21
Chryssi Avgi 16 - 26
LAOS 0 - 11
Eco Greens 0 - 11

Looks to me that ND + PASOK would in any case attain 150 seats by themselves unless SYRIZA manages to come first.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 02:08:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That can't be right - those seat allocations sum to well over 400. I guess we can expect the oldest democracy money can buy to have over 100 % voter participation, but surely they cannot have over 130 % parliamentary attendance?

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 02:11:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well, it's 196-319 + 50 which is 250 + 50 with a lot of noise. Not everyone can be simultaneously at the bottom of their vote range or at the top of their seat range. The first three parties, in particular, could any of them get the 50-seat bonus, but can't get it simultaneously.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 02:26:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

By those estimates the forecast of a ND + PASOK government with SYRIZA leading the opposition looks pretty good.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 02:14:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: First Exit Poll (4.00 / 2)

And the ND-PASOK government will have a very thin majority so the goal of the left will have been attained:

A good result for the left would be an inability by pro-austerity forces to form a stable government

a pro-austerity government with 150 seats plus change will crack under pressure.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun May 6th, 2012 at 02:38:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]