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The IU -> SYRIZA scenario would go like this: First PSOE would have to start splintering. Then a left/sane faction would have to join the IU. Then the IU would have to seek alliance with other credible forces that would prop up its street cred which could be built by unwavering, clear and principled support of popular movements against austerity. That would involve removing any people who are too soft on the PSOE and recognizing that whatever remains of the PSOE is a political opponent, pretty much on the same level that the right is.
Then a leader with some public charisma would help, but is not really, absolutely necessary...
The problem is that at this stage there is no time for this scenario. Developments will occur at too rapid a pace so who knows... How strong is the fascist right in Spain right now and how high the level of xenophobia?
The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
Now that Spain has been "rescued" almost exactly 2 years after Greece, the situation is that the PP parliamentary group needs to start leaking parlamentarians, like PASOK did, until the government loses its supermajority and becomes vulnerable to a no-confidence motion. For PP parlamentarians to break party discipline seems unthinkable right now.
I think it's more likely that Spain's economy will tailspin to 30-35% official unemployment (60-70% youth unemployment!) and then social unrest prompts a suspension of civil liberties than that the PP will lose its parliamentary supermajority. The government has already legislated a criminalization of nonviolent civil disobedience.
But the PP base (and the parliamentary backbenchers) are right now in a state of perplexed shock both at the political/economic situation and at the government's performance (and performance art). So, who knows, there could be an internal revolt.
If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
Are people concerned that Spain will leave the eurozone precipitously? If they are not, should they be?
UI is marked in Spain, very different from what it was in Greece. The Socialist Party is also marked and no alternative leaders.
Since people from IU, from the PSOE, and new people, a new party would be required, unmarked, looking to the future.
I quit. Sorry. I have to go to the doctor.
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