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While you're probably right, I must point out that two years ago no one in Greece could have publicly predicted that SYRIZA would evolve into SYRIZA without suspicion that they are on crack. SYRIZA was polling around 3%, 15 months ago...

The IU -> SYRIZA scenario would go like this: First PSOE would have to start splintering. Then a left/sane faction would have to join the IU. Then the IU would have to seek alliance with other credible forces that would prop up its street cred which could be built by unwavering, clear and principled support of popular movements against austerity. That would involve removing any people who are too soft on the PSOE and recognizing that whatever remains of the PSOE is a political opponent, pretty much on the same level that the right is.
Then a leader with some public charisma would help, but is not really, absolutely necessary...
The problem is that at this stage there is no time for this scenario. Developments will occur at too rapid a pace so who knows... How strong is the fascist right in Spain right now and how high the level of xenophobia?

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 07:41:21 AM EST
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The IU -> SYRIZA scenario would go like this: First PSOE would have to start splintering.

Now that Spain has been "rescued" almost exactly 2 years after Greece, the situation is that the PP parliamentary group needs to start leaking parlamentarians, like PASOK did, until the government loses its supermajority and becomes vulnerable to a no-confidence motion. For PP parlamentarians to break party discipline seems unthinkable right now.

I think it's more likely that Spain's economy will tailspin to 30-35% official unemployment (60-70% youth unemployment!) and then social unrest prompts a suspension of civil liberties than that the PP will lose its parliamentary supermajority. The government has already legislated a criminalization of nonviolent civil disobedience.

But the PP base (and the parliamentary backbenchers) are right now in a state of perplexed shock both at the political/economic situation and at the government's performance (and performance art). So, who knows, there could be an internal revolt.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 08:13:08 AM EST
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Since Spain has an industrial base (that Greece doesn't have) isn't the whole of Europe frightened that Spain will--at some point--decide not to take on any more debt in this crazy, crazy plan of the troika?

Are people concerned that Spain will leave the eurozone precipitously? If they are not, should they be?

by Upstate NY on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 08:55:44 AM EST
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#VivaSyriza was (might still be) trending impressively in the Spanish tweetoshere. And the hope and goodwill being projected through it are impressive. Apparently there is great internal demand for such a project.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Fri Jun 15th, 2012 at 11:19:40 AM EST
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I've seen that. Pleasantly surprised
by Euroliberal on Fri Jun 15th, 2012 at 03:04:20 PM EST
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In Spain there are something "worse than fascism" today's politicians are the grandchildren of grandparents, no children from their parents, ie caciquismo (perversion of the idea and the use of the power).

 UI is marked in Spain, very different from what it was in Greece. The Socialist Party is also marked and no alternative leaders.

 Since people from IU, from the PSOE, and new people, a new party would be required, unmarked, looking to the future.

 I quit. Sorry. I have to go to the doctor.

by PerCLupi on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 10:04:59 AM EST
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This is one of the problems that I see with the indignados. They could very well challenge established parties if they chose to participate in electoral politics, but there's a reticence to enter politics. If they did, you would have a Syriza type party.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 10:21:41 AM EST
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I have 1/2 hour. I agree.

 

by PerCLupi on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 10:36:11 AM EST
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