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The IU -> SYRIZA scenario would go like this: First PSOE would have to start splintering.

Now that Spain has been "rescued" almost exactly 2 years after Greece, the situation is that the PP parliamentary group needs to start leaking parlamentarians, like PASOK did, until the government loses its supermajority and becomes vulnerable to a no-confidence motion. For PP parlamentarians to break party discipline seems unthinkable right now.

I think it's more likely that Spain's economy will tailspin to 30-35% official unemployment (60-70% youth unemployment!) and then social unrest prompts a suspension of civil liberties than that the PP will lose its parliamentary supermajority. The government has already legislated a criminalization of nonviolent civil disobedience.

But the PP base (and the parliamentary backbenchers) are right now in a state of perplexed shock both at the political/economic situation and at the government's performance (and performance art). So, who knows, there could be an internal revolt.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 08:13:08 AM EST
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Since Spain has an industrial base (that Greece doesn't have) isn't the whole of Europe frightened that Spain will--at some point--decide not to take on any more debt in this crazy, crazy plan of the troika?

Are people concerned that Spain will leave the eurozone precipitously? If they are not, should they be?

by Upstate NY on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 08:55:44 AM EST
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#VivaSyriza was (might still be) trending impressively in the Spanish tweetoshere. And the hope and goodwill being projected through it are impressive. Apparently there is great internal demand for such a project.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Fri Jun 15th, 2012 at 11:19:40 AM EST
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I've seen that. Pleasantly surprised
by Euroliberal on Fri Jun 15th, 2012 at 03:04:20 PM EST
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