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A little context is useful here. The purpose of this new FiT is to blunt the tremendous increase in the use of natural gas for electric following the nuclear shutdown.  The latest IEA figures are for 2009.  Then nuclear produced 279750 GWh.  Dividing that by 8760 (365 days * 24 hours) you get roughly 32 GW.

Some nuclear reactors are already back on, but let's just simplify and say that we are looking to replace 25 GW of capacity.  Simplifying again, let's look at that in light of average capacity factors. PV solar is about 20%, so that means you need 125 GW of solar to replace that lost nuclear.  Wind is going to float around 33% (actually a little higher, but I'm simplifying the math) so that's 75 GW.

Because there is a short term rush, solar rates are so high, and there is a serious global overproduction of PV solar I suspect that there is going to be a bubble here that will solve the short term power shortage, but seriously harm the FiT regime in the long term. Particularly once LNG exports from the US start in two-three years.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 08:04:17 PM EST
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