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The purpose of this new FiT is to blunt the tremendous increase in the use of natural gas for electric following the nuclear shutdown.

More precisely, that's one main purpose of the high rates for the first three years. And in three years, I don't expect more than a blunt (that is much less than say 60 GW of solar and 40 GW of wind): the growth speed of an industry and the amount of capital that can be drawn isn't infinite even if profitability will be stellar.

The latest IEA figures are for 2009.

You can get more current figures here. Based on Q1 figures, we are indeed looking at a combustible fuel use increase vs. Q1/2010 by a bit more than a third or about 75 TWh. Some other interesting points:

  • Overall production is back to 2010 levels.
  • In Japan, in month resolution, the summer peak appears to be barely above the winter peak (though the latter might be more concentrated in time to the festivities).
  • In 2011, for some reason, production was as much below normal in February as in the worst months after Fukushima.

I suspect that there is going to be a bubble here that will solve the short term power shortage, but seriously harm the FiT regime in the long term

Your word choice makes me curious: by the "FiT regime" that may be harmed, do you mean the institutional framework or the plants working under the FiT taken together, or the whole renewables sector (including suppliers)? Either way IMO the danger is in the collapse of the manufacturing and installation industry if degression sets in too hard. But I don't think enough renewables will be installed in three years to seriously impact electricity prices and thus give a valid justification to destroy the institutional framework; and the way the rates are set, producers who install their plants in the next three years will be unaffected by future degression, not to mention conventional fuel competition.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sat Jun 23rd, 2012 at 04:40:13 AM EST
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