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Global production capacity for solar volatic elements is currently around 60 gw (rated). About half of this productive capacity is in search of buyers.

The japanese government just gave them a market for the entirety of this potential output, and the average japanese household can make this investment without having to loan the money. I expect them to do so, because the return is so very high. Further, productive capacity in this sector has doubled year-on-year to meet new demands before. It is not a strech to suppose this will happen again. Thus, by the time the law expires, it within the realm of physical and engineering possibility that over 400 gw (Rated) of solar has been put up in japan. And as long as the law is on the books, financial incentives make this maximalist scenario quite likely. This is just the solar sector - sales of windmills and so on to Japan are also likely to be extremely strong.

by Thomas on Sat Jun 23rd, 2012 at 12:49:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If such an extreme boom could be kicked off, I guess (1) degression would be imposed sooner than 3 years, (2) it would again speed up economies-of-scale cost reductions in the industry with global effect. However, I still don't think willing investors and the supply industry will grow from 1 GW/year to a 100 GW/year level overnight. Even if it's just about installing technicians: if German conditions are instructive (34,000 technicians among the 128,000 solar industry employees and 7.5 GW installed last year), that would require the training of 450,000 people.

What's more, I repeat that if we think of the specific investor circle of homeowners wanting rooftop solar, ¥42/kWh for just ten years (equivalent to c. €0.21/kWh over 20 years, ignoring maintenance costs and cell degradation) is not that stellar an offer, even with the somewhat higher annual yield per kW capacity than in Germany.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sat Jun 23rd, 2012 at 02:23:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Forgot to add: downthread I gave a ministry estimate of 150 GW as the PV potential of Japan on suitable surfaces. I think that cap translates into another istallation speed constraint, but assuming all these surfaces can be filled in three years, we are speaking about a ceiling of 165 TWh a year or c. 15% of consumption.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 06:23:13 AM EST
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