Mexico On the Cusp of An Election (The Economic Backdrop) | 12 comments (12 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Mexico On the Cusp of (4.00 / 2)

I'm surprised that you didn't mention the Televisa Scandal. The UK Guardian has been on this.

A secretive unit inside Mexico's predominant television network set up and funded a campaign for Enrique Peña Nieto, who is the favourite to win Sunday's presidential election, according to people familiar with the operation and documents seen by the Guardian.
The new revelations of bias within Televisa, the world's biggest Spanish-language broadcaster, challenge the company's claim to be politically impartial as well as Peña Nieto's insistence that he never had a special relationship with Televisa.
The unit - known as "team Handcock", in what sources say was a Televisa codename for the politician and his allies - commissioned videos promoting the candidate and his PRI party and rubbishing the party's rivals in 2009. The documents suggest the team distributed the videos to thousands of email addresses, and pushed them on Facebook and YouTube, where some of them can still be seen.
The nature of the relationship between Peña Nieto and Televisa has been a key issue in Sunday's election since the development in May of a student movement focused on perceived media manipulation of public opinion in the candidate's favour.

Remember that Mexico is a market in which TV commands an outsized portion of the market for political coverage. Paper readership is fairly low and online media has a low penetration rate. Controlling the majority of TV coverage is a huge advantage.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Fri Jun 29th, 2012 at 08:16:44 PM EST

Re: Mexico On the Cusp of (none / 1)

My intention was to eschew politics in favor of the economic situation.

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne

by maracatu on Fri Jun 29th, 2012 at 08:41:06 PM EST
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Re: Mexico On the Cusp of (none / 0)

I can understand that. It definitely seems that this story coming out now could have an impact on who wins.

Back on the economic situation, I'm remembering back in 2006 that AMLO had a plank in his platform to build on Mexico's oil resources by developing the plastics and other industries that use it as feedstock. With the proximity to the US market, this seems like a real winner.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Fri Jun 29th, 2012 at 09:16:35 PM EST
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Re: Mexico On the Cusp of (none / 1)

I still wager that the PRI will win. They have had the machinery in place from long ago:

The Mexican revolutionary family has promoted the electoral fortunes of its electoral arm, the PRI, through the use of the Mexican variant on clientelism, caciquismo.8 The PRI has employed both the sold vote and the gregarious vote to increase turnout and the PRI margin of victory.9 The use of either the sold vote or the gregarious vote necessitate the availability of individuals whose costs and gains of voting can be so manipulated. Historically, this has been maximized in the countryside, where both methods can be combined by rural caciques

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne

by maracatu on Fri Jun 29th, 2012 at 09:38:55 PM EST
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Re: Mexico On the Cusp of (none / 0)

Win, yes. But, how?

Election fraud was rampant in 2006 and 1988.

It's almost certain that the PRI lost to the PRD, or I should say Cardenas, in 1988. Miguel de la Madrid, the president '82-'88 admitted as much in his memoirs.

As for 2006, I know some people who were election judges who saw fraud before their own eyes. I don't know whether it would have been enough to change the result, but it was still there.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sat Jun 30th, 2012 at 08:10:10 AM EST
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Re: Mexico On the Cusp of (none / 0)

As I quoted above - 'clientelism'.

...OK, I guess what I mean is they won't "win" clean, but will "win" dirty. Are there perhaps different "shades" of fraud? Clientelism is a type of fraud (isn't it?) and has existed for decades; it exists across countries. It even exists here in my homeland (Puerto Rico), so you might as well argue that nobody has "won" an election anywhere.

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne

by maracatu on Sat Jun 30th, 2012 at 12:10:06 PM EST
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Re: Mexico On the Cusp of (4.00 / 3)

My spouse just read in El Universal that trucks full of goods being distributed to the poor (to buy votes) were found/observed in Mexico City. The trucks belonged to both the PRI and PRD. Another report by phone from a friend in Mexico stated that voters were being offered money to vote for a particular candidate. In order to collect, the voter has to take a cell phone photo of their completed ballot and provide it to a party representative.

Nothing about such tactics that I haven't heard for the past forty years. We were living in a small Mexican town during the last local elections and the fact that some parties would go to just about any length to secure a victory was more than evident. That all political parties would participate in fraudulent tactics stands to reason. Political power is money. Almost anything goes because there is no effective enforcement of election rules and law.

Consider the nasty tactics that both parties employ in the US, localize them for Mexico and bring them out into the open. That's politics in Mexico. Politics stinks period.

I can swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell. _ Blood Sweat & Tears

by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Sat Jun 30th, 2012 at 11:22:59 PM EST
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Re: Mexico On the Cusp of (none / 0)

Precisely!

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne

by maracatu on Sun Jul 1st, 2012 at 07:24:56 AM EST
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Re: Mexico On the Cusp of (none / 0)

Honestly what I was trying to imply is that clientelism isn't enough. I'm saying that I question whether the PRI won't need to alter election results through actually stealing ballot boxes, as various parties did in 1988 and 2006 to pull off a win. That's a lot harder sell than simple clientelism. At the very least, I'm thinking that that kind of fixing the election would prompt protests like in 2006, if not larger.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Jul 1st, 2012 at 10:24:03 AM EST
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Re: Mexico On the Cusp of (none / 0)

OK, that's fine. I'd look at it as one party blatantly appropriating itself of ballots that were already bought by the other party. (;-P)

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne

by maracatu on Sun Jul 1st, 2012 at 12:38:02 PM EST
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Re: Mexico On the Cusp of (none / 0)

I think during the last election the allegation was that the Federal election authority (IFE) actually tallied ballots incorrectly to show a win for the PAN candidate Calderon over the PRI candidate Madrazo and Lopez of PRD. Since Lopez and Calderon were supposedly neck and neck, only small changes were needed here and there making a fraudulent win plausible.

I can swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell. _ Blood Sweat & Tears

by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Sun Jul 1st, 2012 at 11:08:26 PM EST
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