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I still wager that the PRI will win.  They have had the machinery in place from long ago:

The Mexican revolutionary family has promoted the electoral fortunes of its electoral arm, the PRI, through the use of the Mexican variant on clientelism, caciquismo.8  The PRI has employed both the sold vote and the gregarious vote to increase turnout and the PRI margin of victory.9  The use of either the sold vote or the gregarious vote necessitate the availability of individuals whose costs and gains of voting can be so manipulated.  Historically, this has been maximized in the countryside, where both methods can be combined by rural caciques


"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Fri Jun 29th, 2012 at 09:38:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Win, yes.  But, how?

Election fraud was rampant in 2006 and 1988.  

It's almost certain that the PRI lost to the PRD, or I should say Cardenas, in 1988.  Miguel de la Madrid, the president '82-'88 admitted as much in his memoirs.

As for 2006, I know some people who were election judges who saw fraud before their own eyes.  I don't know whether it would have been enough to change the result, but it was still there.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sat Jun 30th, 2012 at 08:10:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As I quoted above - 'clientelism'.  

...OK, I guess what I mean is they won't "win" clean, but will "win" dirty.  Are there perhaps different "shades" of fraud?  Clientelism is a type of fraud (isn't it?) and has existed for decades; it exists across countries.  It even exists here in my homeland (Puerto Rico), so you might as well argue that nobody has "won" an election anywhere.

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne

by maracatu on Sat Jun 30th, 2012 at 12:10:06 PM EST
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My spouse just read in El Universal that trucks full of goods being distributed to the poor (to buy votes) were found/observed in Mexico City. The trucks belonged to both the PRI and PRD. Another report by phone from a friend in Mexico stated that voters were being offered money to vote for a particular candidate. In order to collect, the voter has to take a cell phone photo of their completed ballot and provide it to a party representative.

Nothing about such tactics that I haven't heard for the past forty years.  We were living in a small Mexican town during the last local elections and the fact that some parties would go to just about any length to secure a victory was more than evident. That all political parties would participate in fraudulent tactics stands to reason. Political power is money. Almost anything goes because there is no effective enforcement of election rules and law.

Consider the nasty tactics that both parties employ in the US, localize them for Mexico and bring them out into the open. That's politics in Mexico. Politics stinks period.

I can swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell. _ Blood Sweat & Tears

by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Sat Jun 30th, 2012 at 11:22:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Precisely!

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Sun Jul 1st, 2012 at 07:24:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Honestly what I was trying to imply is that clientelism isn't enough.  I'm saying that I question whether the PRI won't need to alter election results through actually stealing ballot boxes, as various parties did in 1988 and 2006 to pull off a win.  That's a lot harder sell than simple clientelism. At the very least, I'm thinking that that kind of fixing the election would prompt protests like in 2006, if not larger.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Jul 1st, 2012 at 10:24:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
OK, that's fine.  I'd look at it as one party blatantly appropriating itself of ballots that were already bought by the other party. (;-P)

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Sun Jul 1st, 2012 at 12:38:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think during the last election the allegation was that the Federal election authority (IFE) actually tallied ballots incorrectly to show a win for the PAN candidate Calderon over the PRI candidate Madrazo and Lopez of PRD. Since Lopez and Calderon were supposedly neck and neck, only small changes were needed here and there making a fraudulent win plausible.

I can swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell. _ Blood Sweat & Tears
by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Sun Jul 1st, 2012 at 11:08:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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