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I think you are underestimating the strength of existing party ties, given the electoral system we have to work with in the UK.

A total disruption of the Conservative Party, leading to a major reconfiguration of the party constellation seems quite unlikely.

A more likely possibility is of Cameron being deposed and spending the rest of his career as a discontented backbencher. However, if the Tories in the cabinet remain united, it is not obvious who would trigger a leadership contest.

The most likely thing is for the Conservatives to remain more or less united, until the next general election. If Cameron wins that, then he continues as leader. If not, he will then be replaced, with far less risk to the aspirants for leadership than a challenge in mid Parliament..

by Gary J on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 10:20:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Tories need a new Darling

It's becoming more obvious now. The wayward curls, the sagging jowls, the general air of world-weariness and dogged determination. Just as animals and their owners grow to resemble each other, so George Osborne is slowly morphing into the man he most loathes in British politics, Gordon Brown.

But the emerging physical similarities are where comparisons between Brown and Osborne end. Unlike most of his predecessors, Gordon managed to seamlessly move from Number 11 to Number 10. Osborne, exposed as less fleet of foot in recent times, looks increasingly like he will be forced from office amid the utter collapse of his economic policy as we sink back into recession.

All of which presents an interesting dilemma for the government. In order to restore their credentials on the economy when `Osbornomics' becomes so discredited that even Michael Fallon refuses to take to the airwaves to defend it, the government will need a new salesman to flog its new economic direction.



Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 02:10:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
St Vince ??

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 02:15:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
suggestion is a job-swap between Hague and Osbourne

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 02:26:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What ?? Osborne is going to become The Mekon ???

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 03:57:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 04:08:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is there a Milliband with the chin to be Dan Dare?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 04:51:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No.

(Simple answers, etc.)

The closest thing seems to be Ed Balls.

Which is not necessarily a recommendation.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 05:05:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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