Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
But there is a huge inertia built into the FPP system. You have vast swathes of the UK where Labour pretty much doesn't exist, and elections are between a Libdem and a Tory. Likewise, in other regions it's Labour vs Libdem. Even if the Libdems lose practically all their seats in the next election, this will still be the case, and they will undoubtedly bounce back some time in the future, barring an unlikely change in the electoral system (PR, ironically, might marginalise them more durably).

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 10:53:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The safe seat angle turns out to be a bit of a myth. Blair won two landslides that demolished many Tory safe havens.

Even after a term with Gordo the Unpopular, the best the Tories could do was scrape into power on the back of an opportunist turn-coat from a party many of them despise.

I think the Lib Dems have already alienated at least two thirds of their likely voters, and what's left isn't much.

A few of the right-wingers will likely to defect to the Tories, where some of them may even keep their seats. A rump of die-hard independents with little influence will be left.

So the next election will be a straight Labour/Tory fight. Unless Milliband gets something horribly wrong, Labour will pick off many of the unpopular Lib Dems in constituencies that used to be LD vs Tory.

Tories will consolidate the rest, but with some serious bleeding to UKIP.

So even if the coalition survives to 2015, it has almost no chance of getting through the next election. There simply won't be enough LD MPs to matter and the Tories are insane if they think they can win a straight majority without them.

We can expect the Tories to play the Europhobic anti-immigrant cards, but the economy will surely be in an even worse state than it is now, and at best that's going to be a rearguard action.

The next election is Labour's to lose.

I think most of the LDs will continue to hang in there for now, because it's better to have a job than not have a job. But the cracks will become increasingly obvious next year.

The real danger isn't from the Lib Dems leaving but from the Rabid Right getting too ambitious. If that happens things could fall apart very quickly.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 12:36:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Any chance of the UKIP obtaining a sufficiently large number of seats in an 'economy gone to hell' election scenario for them to be a viable coalition partner were the Tory party willing?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 01:58:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, there's actually two chances, but Slim just left town

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 02:14:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hope Nun sticks around then.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 05:29:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
2015 is 3 years from now - which is a very long time, so just hanging in there is a perfectly reasonable strategy. The odds of the economy turning before then around despite the worst efforts of the UK government are fairly good, and all kinds of political events are sure to take place and rearrange polling numbers repeatedly before then.
by Thomas on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 05:14:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The odds of the economy turning before then around despite the worst efforts of the UK government are fairly good

Uh - no. They really aren't.

There is no growth base. Even if the ConDems throw money at infrastructure - which is not a bad idea - their ideology means they'll have to raise taxes to pay for the spending.

Retail is dying, manufacturing is hanging in there but not improving, and Cameron seems obsessed with dinky little know-nothing start-ups, when he could spending useful money on better broadband and giving non-dinky IT entrepreneurs access to better funding.

So to repeat - there is no growth base. Resource prices will continue to increase, with taxes. Benefits and the NHS will be cut.

None of these make for an improved feel-good factor going into 2015.

And that's before the remaining bankster price fixing stories hit the news, and Cameron is seen trying to apologise for them.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 05:23:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So it hangs on the odds of an external economic boom filtering through to the UK economy?

Well, that would seem to be a "quasi-external" boom, given the dominant influence of the EU economy as a whole in that.

So, what are the odds that the EU gets its act sometime in the next year, which would enable the start of a recovery in 2014 and an acceleration in 2015?

That would seem to be equal to the odds of a strong UK economy, if no domestic growth drivers are available ~ in part because they are not there, and in part because those that are there requires the opposite of a Tory policy to take advantage of.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 07:54:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU will hit bedrock when either Italy or France are where Spain is now. Which is in 12-18 months.

The problem is that they might break out the explosives.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Jul 22nd, 2012 at 10:26:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Which raises the possibility of the LibDems exploding ~ if the prospect of gaining election as representing the breakaway faction that took down the Tory government becomes clearly greater than the abysmal prospect of gaining election as a LibDem ... then the closer the next election comes, the smaller the reward for hanging on until sure electoral oblivion when the next election must be called.

Any increase in the perceived odds of an early election would decrease the perceived benefit of the "hang on and then rebuild in the wilderness" strategy.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Jul 16th, 2012 at 05:16:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Top Diaries

Occasional Series