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You'll have to do that over Germany's kicking and screaming undead body.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jul 20th, 2012 at 05:24:12 AM EST
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Probably worse than that. The political classes of all the Eurozone countries mobilized in support of Maastricht. And at least some of them must have thought through the implications. And approved.
by generic on Fri Jul 20th, 2012 at 05:52:20 AM EST
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See Maastricht and All That (Wynne Godley, 8 October 1992) and Robert Mundell, evil genius of the euro (Greg Palast, 26 June 2012)

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jul 20th, 2012 at 05:55:19 AM EST
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Godley's text reads like prophecy.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Sat Jul 21st, 2012 at 10:30:50 AM EST
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Dirk Bezemer; 'No one saw this coming' - or did they? (Vox, 30 September 2009)
From the very beginning of the credit crisis and the ensuing recession, it has become conventional wisdom that "no one saw this coming". Anatole Kaletsky (2008) wrote in the The Times of "those who failed to foresee the gravity of this crisis - a group that includes Mr King, Mr Brown, Alistair Darling, Alan Greenspan and almost every leading economist and financier in the world." Glenn Stevens (2008), Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, said:
"I do not know anyone who predicted this course of events. This should give us cause to reflect on how hard a job it is to make genuinely useful forecasts. What we have seen is truly a `tail' outcome - the kind of outcome that the routine forecasting process never predicts. But it has occurred, it has implications, and so we must reflect on it".
We must indeed.

...

In Bezemer (2009), I document the models that got it right. The important question for economists is - how did they do it? What is the underlying model?

...

The most detailed of these models, which has also been used to construct public projections and analyses, are "Flow of Funds" models of the US developed by Wynne Godley and associates at the Levy Economics Institute. These may serve as pars pro toto for the class of "Flow of Funds" models of real-financial interactions (e.g. also Werner, 1997; Graziani, 2003; Hudson, 2006; Keen, 2009). A simplified (closed-economy) representation in Godley (1999) consists of stocks and flows of a number of asset classes between four sectors (explicitly separating out the financial sector), with their properties and interrelations represented in over 60 equations (Table 1; see Godley 1999 for all symbols).



If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jul 22nd, 2012 at 04:55:31 AM EST
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At what point does the answer become, "okay, maybe we'll try to build the EU a bit later as the current governements will only produce a dangerous institutional setup" ? Voice is not working, maybe Exit becomes the only solution...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Fri Jul 20th, 2012 at 05:53:43 AM EST
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At what point does the answer become, "okay, maybe we'll try to build the EU a bit later as the current governements will only produce a dangerous institutional setup"?
That's been my answer since the 2005 "constitution" referenda.

The problem with "exit" is that we'd exit with the same national politicians that are the problem at the European level.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jul 20th, 2012 at 05:57:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sadly yes, but it would at least deprive the governments of the Council as a venue to conspire against their parliaments and populations. Pessimistically an EU breakup would just offer a new lease of live to the WTO.

But then I don't get the impression that the Greek government would have the stomach to continue its class war without the Troika behind them. They look quite demoralized.

by generic on Fri Jul 20th, 2012 at 06:31:10 AM EST
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