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to the left is maximally 3 seats and most likely 2. In a parliament of 150 seats, that's a marginal 2 percent.

The smallest parties may eventually have some minor influence in course-correcting through parliament, but not in the formation of government, I'd wager. Had four to five parties been needed to form a majority, the smallest parties were (silently) hoping to plug the gap for considerable leverage. That scenario hasn't panned out.

Now the bigger parties need to muscle it out first. For coalition building, one should look at the medium-sized parties. The CDA, reduced to medium size, will think twice of being pulled into a coalition - but they love power, never say never. Greens are now too small and need cleaning up first.

Intuitively, D66 has the best cards to be eventually invited. But that would mean Samsom would have to make a deal with two Marketista parties, which would reduce his bargaining power.

Headaches galore.

by Nomad (Bjinse) on Thu Sep 13th, 2012 at 07:47:15 AM EST
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