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That would certainly be a problem for existing investments in Euro-zone countries were Germany to leave the Euro-zone. But most of the depreciation would likely occur immediately, rendering EZ countries X-Germany attractive targets for new investment. And, while German investors may take an immediate hit on the value of its foreign assets, should not assets become more competitive and, thus, their net present value should increase to offset the immediate loss due to currency revaluation?
I agree that, medium to long term, there are probably hard limits as to how high a new Deutchmark could go relative to other countries without Germany becoming uncompetitive in its core products. Although a lot of those losses could well be to relocated subsidiaries of German parents. But would that not start bringing the downside of globalization home to Germany and result in a hollowing out of German Industry? "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
Arguing that DM appreciation would not affect the surplus, or indeed increase it, implies that the appreciation would continue absent a majorly active central bank policy to manipulate the exchange rate. Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
Also, central bank reserves don't circulate, so I'm not convinced "printing money" to accumulate foreign reserves to depress your exchange rate will "lead to inflation". If anything, it is an attempt to arrest deflation (explicitly in the case of Switzerland). But, if by depressing your currency you sustain your country's current account surplus (and Switzerland's is over 10% of GDP) then you get deflation anyway because a current account surplus is a drain on your money base. A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
I think you've got this backwards: the strategy would lead to increased reserve in foreign currency, but with more of the domestic currency on the open markets. So, provided that those who exchange currency for DM are interested in spending them, it could lead to inflation/reduced deflation.
Especially if the quantities are huge. Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
Just look at Switzerland's last two years... A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
But if those foreigners were massively buying your domestic assets you wouldn't have a current account surplus.
The basic fact is that only the central bank for a given currency can perform LOLR functions for holders of debt denominated in that currency. It is important that this be done not so much for the sake of the bank but for the sake of the various derivative dealers that might be in departments of that bank.
The basic assumption of the assets being financed is:
Risk-less Asset = Risky Asset + Risk Insurance. or Risk-less Asset = Risky Asset + CDS + IRS + FXS
But risk insurance must be priced. If the derivative dealers in CDSs, IRSs and FX swaps are not supported in a crisis then they will not make markets. If they do not make markets risk insurance can no longer be priced and the risky assets get liquidated in a very disorderly and damaging fashion.
So it is the job of the Central Banks to provide liquidity as required until the panic is controlled. They effectively become dealers of last resort and have to begin to issue CDSs, IRSs and FXSs themselves and carry these instruments on their balance sheets. It is to be hoped that, seeing that they HAVE to perform such functions that they jointly agree to regulations that will make such an eventuality less likely. But that is very much a work in progress, if that is not too generous a term. Have a helping of Hopium. "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
It's looking increasingly likely that inflation is a fiscal, not a monetary phenomenon, as Chris Cook has been pointing out for a long time.
Anyway, if all countries start doing that sort of thing, nothing stops the periphery (and France) countries to do the same... but with a lower exchange rate! Then we'll get central banks printing and printing, ad libitum, with no limit. Then, once the periphery central banks have accumulated enough to essentially purchase Germany, a nice bout of inflation could ensue. Of course, the game would stop long before that. Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
Anyway, if all countries start doing that sort of thing, nothing stops the periphery (and France) countries to do the same... but with a lower exchange rate! Then we'll get central banks printing and printing, ad libitum, with no limit.
- Jake Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
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