ECONOMIC RESEARCH
Author: Patrick Artus
The European Commission considers that the very large external surplus of Germany is a reprehensible macroeconomic imbalance.
We believe that this is an error of analysis :

• the bulk of the external surplus of Germany now appears vis-à -vis the outside world and not vis-à- vis the euro area; it is therefore not a levy on other countries in the euro zone;
  
• the external surplus of Germany vis-à -vis the world outside the euro zone comes from the ability of Germany to redirect its exports to the world outside the euro area.  Domestic demand in Germany, which must be considered correcting for demography, is low but not significantly lower, and will be corrected with the introduction of a minimum wage and additional infrastructure spending