Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Around 2008 it crossed my mind that getting old might save me: I am now a couple of years of being 40 and that might avoid me being drafted. One would agree that there are similarities between both periods. But there are also differences...

  1. The elite is highly engaged in the globalization thing. The so-called "1%" would stand much to loose from a nationalist breakdown. Thus I do not see strong support for things like fascist (at least at the top level... at the popular level it is an entirely different question)

  2. I wonder (I ask): What about if the ECB would simply do "an Ireland" to Southern European debt (non-banking included): extend maturity to 30/40 years and lower the interest rate? Would not that create a situation that is economically acceptable to the South and politically tolerable to the North? Would that be a solution in any way?

  3. It should be noted (as you note) that many of the Southern countries have lost food-sovereignty: In the case of Portugal, I think we produced 80% of what we ate on EU-entry and now around 20% (not totally sure of the numbers, from memory). A "Disorderly default" (i.e. without creditor blessing) could literally mean the starvation of many.

  4. In a disorderly default, I would imagine that debt held under the law of other countries (As part of the debt was emitted e.g. in London) might become a problem. See the issues that Argentina has with confiscation.

  5. Another solution might be a Marshall Plan of sorts for the South. But seeing the discussions on the EU budget, things seem to be going the other way...

  6. Another issue is migration. There is ongoing migration from the South to the North. On one hand, people of working age are leaving the South (thus depleting the area of workers) with obviously bad medium term consequences. On the other hand this is bound to become a political hot potato in the North (in the UK you see already see the discussion heating up).

In more ways than one Southern European countries are not sovereign nations anymore. Some degree of food autonomy is a starting point. Emitting debt under local law only would be another.
by cagatacos on Mon Feb 11th, 2013 at 06:08:47 AM EST

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