Well, the idea was only floated in the event of underperforming failing to wake up (ie still pushing the same doctrines) after Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece had disintegrated into civil wars.

So if you were to do worse than that, well, then France would probably be next. And if France disintegrates, it's at least plausible that at some point some people will want to do more than merely stop paying, and demand some back (something that Germany did once, didn't it?).

Not saying it's the most likely. Just that if you accept the premise that elites do even worse than failing to change course after countries break into civil wars, well, it will have to be bad. And indeed the 30s is the nearest experience. I'm pretty sure that lots of people explained that full outbreak was impossible back then too. In fact, I know that it was stated in the early 1910s.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

Yes, that's what JakeS is talking about when he talks about hard default leding to lack of access to international credit markets which, for a net importer of food and fuel with a current account deficit is tantamount to a wartime blockade.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS