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Georgia might be a more apropos example.
- Jake Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
If only because if we make it clear we won't, some other power will be delighted to do it for us. It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
France gets to pick the winner. Germany and the UK get veto rights over who France picks.
"France, subject to German and British veto" is not the same as "EU."
Given how obviously dysfunctional the German-led EU has become, France acting unilaterally or with tacit support from Britain and Germany may well make better decisions than the EU. But don't kid yourself that unilateral French decisions will be made to cater to the European interest.
Isn't a armed conflict about separatism much more probable?
Even the conflict in Ukraine has a considerable regional slant.
In Spain, probably. But there is likely to be an ideological difference between the separatists and the central government as well, which is what will likely decide which side the great powers support.
In Greece, I don't see the separatist fault line. But I very much do see the Pro-Nazi/Austerity vs. Anti-Nazi/Austerity fault line.
Other than that, I at least am not assuming a conflict "along ideological lines" (except possibly in Greece with Golden Dawn vs. Syriza).
Though if Spain gets violent over nationalism, it will quickly devolve into an "ideological" war too, what with all those Franco fans and anarchists. I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
Ok, other ideological lines not related with competing nationalisms.
Absent great power interest, both sides could reject austerity, but with present great power line-up embracing austerity could grant foreign support. So defeating the secessionists, paying our debts and getting help from our friends could also be part of the same program.
In general I think smaller conflicts adopt to what greater powers will support. Absent the cold war a lot of conflicts would have been fought between similar groups but with different flags. Some time ago I read an article by a pakistani communist that travelled to North Korea during the heydays of international communism and left with the question of why the North Korean government was considered communist in the first place. My answer would be because they had been accepted in the communist group and therefore were communist by definition. Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
Do we need a separate macro for liberal interventionist? I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
The pro-Russian gangster happened to probably be better for Georgia than the pro-US gangster. But what's good for Georgia was likely to have been some way down the list of criteria for picking him.
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