I don't think a coup today would look like a 1930ies coup. Everybody by now knows the script of a color-revolution. Have an election, claim the other side cheated, post videos on youtube supporting your cause, go on to take control over central parts of the capital. Government is run off, other side takes control, restores order and publishes documents to show that they were right all along.

So I think both sides in a conflict will claim to be the democratically-elected European government under attack. Which means that the major powers can choose which one to support. And if that support follows the same politics as todays support, it will be pro-austerity governments that will be supported.

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