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My take-away from the blog post is this : you claim that showing a correlation between EU countries' debt levels and bond interest rates has policy implications for the USA.
This is a political assertion, and frankly laughable from an economics point of view. The graph from your blog (below) demonstrates that, as long as the market was under the illusion that the Euro was a normal currency, debt levels had no influence on interest rates for member countries. It was precisely when it became apparent that the ECB was unwilling to function as a true central bank, and was in fact prepared to let member countries' economies go to the wall, that the correlation between debt levels and interest rates becomes apparent.
It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
For sovereign entities, the policy takeaway from the ongoing failure of the euro is this : if you want interest rates to correlate with debt levels, then kneecap your central bank. The Fed has made it abundantly clear that it will find creative ways to print money, as much and as long as necessary. If it were to signal that it was no longer willing to accommodate debt-based stimulus, then buying US treasuries would suddenly become dangerous. And the interest rates would soar. Wouldn't that be nice? It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
That's why US municipal bond insurance exists (remember AIG?).
Or do you mean there's no "safe Euro asset"? I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
If it were to signal that it was no longer willing to accommodate debt-based stimulus, then buying US treasuries would suddenly become dangerous.
There still wouldn't be an asset that is inherently safer than treasuries. In Europe you could rank national debt after how credible the non backing by the ECB was.
But faced with the choice of defaulting on the debt or shutting down the government, both the US Congress and the Treasury appear to lean on the side of shutting down the government. So even in case the Fed decided to become the Bundesbank US treasuries would remain safe. I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
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