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as masterplan it looks viable, solid, realistic and prescient, all the more so for not counting on some phantom new invention that will turn all these calculations into irrelevance.
the numbers don't lie, they portray simple common sense. people can nitpick about the details of how much EROI each solution yields, but the general picture is quite clear, freight by electric rail is a no-brainer, as is massive rollout of solar/wind and node-dispersion for a more robust grid ecology.
there's one thing that confuses me though. why on earth can't solar panels power their own tracking devices, or does the E needed to turn the trackers cost more sunlight than it gains? i get bruce's answer about PV panels' costs lowering so it's cheaper to slap on more panels than build trackers for them. there's so much flat roof space to cover before we'd need to argue much about that right away, but slapping more panels will infringe on more space, another 'externality'? 20-30 years from now we will be still looking at many superannuated PV setups, technically obsolete almost right out of the boxes, but still yielding electricity as new, better efficiency models spring up around and beside them.
excellent, professional work Bruce, fine comments too, 5 ET *** .
Thanks for a stimulating read!
'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
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