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You said that renewable sources can generate electricity cheaply. I don't see how that matters. The price of electricity must cover the cost of keeping the whole generation capacity operational. Now you say that shortfalls will be predictable. ...
You might infer that I was not assuming that all sustainable, renewable power sources involves the harvesting of volatile energy sources, otherwise "dispatchable sustainable renewable energy" would not exist.
However, the dispatchable sustainable, renewable power sources like dammed hydropower and biocoal tend to have a limited total supply, and a strategy that takes that into account is to integrate as much abundant volatile harvesting capacity into the grid as is practicable and organize the generation of power from the dispatchable energy sources around to firm the generation of that harvested power.
When you treat it is irrelevant that half of the variation in the harvesting of volatile sustainable renewable energy is predictable, you are ignoring that not all of the dispatchable sustainable renewable energy can respond to fluctuations in load as rapidly as dammed hydropower. If you are using biocoal in a conventional coal power plant, it requires a ramp up period. If you are using biocoal in direct carbon fuel cells, the biocoal slurry would not be used for long term storage but rather prepared on demand.
However, a day's advance notice is ample for bringing other dispatchable sustainable renewable power sources on line, so it make sense to reserve rapid ramp-up dispatchable power such as dammed hydropower (which can have their firming capacity extended with reverse pumped hydro, or, looking ahead, may be supplemented by ammonia peakers) for the non-predictable component of the supply gap between load and harvested supply.
I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
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