Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I just want to make clear that I do not support leaving the Euro now (talking from a perspective of a small country that imports most of its food and non-electric energy). I was not explicit enough: I said I support leaving the Euro "in theory". Why in theory?

The Euro does not work and does not work for 3 reasons:

i) conjectural (mismanagement) I suppose there is a consensus on this site on this. but also

ii) structural. There is no such thing as a EU as a unified cultural block. Even if the management was sound, the differences among the nations would make it a complicated endeavour and there would be discordance because there are different ways of doing things that are hard-wired culturally

iii) philosophical. I prefer a world where there is diversity of ways to deal with problems. A unified Europe (even one with "good" intentions) would be a step in the opposite direction.

So, in theory, I think this should stop. As an aside, if people do not agree with points 2 and 3, I think we do agree on point 1.

In practice:

There is a massive amount of interdependency and (e.g. in the case of Portugal) food and energy dependency. There are 3 practical options for exit:

  1. A country wants to exit and the EU supports it. This would be against the prevailing ideology (left or right) and the interests of the financial oligarchy. Therefore this is not possible. If this was possible, exit would be complicated, but not impossible. Notice that countries like the US (with their financial oligarchy also invested in globalization) would not come to help also. Not realistic

  2. A country wants to exit and the EU is neutral. This would be very complicated (with debt restructuring) but possible. In several cases this would be feasible because while there might be food/energy dependency the trade balance is not that bad (e.g. in Portugal with austerity it is actually going net positive). This is politically unlikely (due to the ideological and oligarchical investment in globalization), but not impossible.

  3. A country wants to exit and the EU will do whatever in its power to make life miserable. Even if you have a neutral trade, if you are dependent on your neighbours for most of your food and energy, you are in a very fragile position (as extreme trade barriers could be lifted). I think that if a small country goes in this direction, it will be in this situation as there would be strong interests to demonstrate its failures.

So, while in theory the Euro is a disaster, getting out is not easy if you are a small, dependent country.

Rock, meet hard place.

by cagatacos on Tue Dec 2nd, 2014 at 09:41:33 AM EST

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