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Many of the problems to an exit could be ameliorated by A Two Monetary Union Solution to Problems in the EMU -- NEUROS AND SEUROS. As to legal obstacles, it is a common practice of realpolitik for countries to break or renounce treaties when adherence to that treaty involves real or perceived conflicts with their national interests. If Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal decided to proceed with a common plan to exit from the EMU and into a SEURO and announced a meeting in Rome or Madrid to agree on a treaty of union it is certain that Berlin would notice. If proper reforms to the EMU resulted that would be great, but if not, the treat could be turned into referenda for the various potential entrants into the proposed SEURO.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Dec 2nd, 2014 at 11:09:31 AM EST
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We can keep the EURO and the Germans can have the NEURO.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Dec 2nd, 2014 at 11:11:44 AM EST
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That would be optimal. But it likely would require the concurrence of France, Italy and, possibly, several smaller countries and France seems the least likely to join such an effort presently. Will it take a Le Penn government to consider such a plan?

The advantage of the Seuro would be that it could be started with Italy and Greece, with Cyprus and Portugal being possible early entrants, followed by Spain after the next election, depending on how Podemus does.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Dec 2nd, 2014 at 02:39:23 PM EST
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Would the threat of Italy and Greece together negotiating their own currency union be sufficient to force the issue with Germany?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Dec 2nd, 2014 at 02:42:32 PM EST
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No way would Le Pen contemplate a currency union with Ritals and Spingouins. The Franc and nothing but the Franc.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Dec 2nd, 2014 at 03:42:19 PM EST
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ARGeezer:
If Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal decided to proceed with a common plan to exit from the EMU and into a SEURO

...They would need strong democratic leadership, as opposed to pseudo-left water carriers for Berlin like Hollande and Renzi.

Great pains have been taken to ensure this does not occur, but they are betting on people continuing to take it lying down as 'good serfs' should.

That remains the great unknown factor neo-liberalism compulsively pushes us towards deciding.

I think they are aware there are limits, but cannot be pro-active about it because profits would be dented. So on we go...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Dec 2nd, 2014 at 12:45:17 PM EST
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