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fter just a year since the previous downgrade, Standard and Poor's yesterday reduced Italy's rating from BBB to BBB- and it's now expected that there'll be growth in GDP of just 0.2% in 2015, as opposed to 1.1% which was the expectation until yesterday. Thus even S&P is following in the foot steps of many institutions, organisations and commercial banks that have recently made significant changes to their predictions in relation to Italy's growth. And yet Renzi had been saying up until a few months ago that thanks to his charitable hand-out of 80 Euro, the government estimates for GDP growth of 0.8% in 2014 would even be too low. Now, however, we know that we are in a situation that the technical people call a "triple-dip recession", with expectations of seeing negative growth for 2014 as well. How is it possible that all the econometric models continue to fail unperturbed as they have been predicting a recovery for the last seven years? It's clear that up until now, it's been a matter of hope for a recovery with the aim of negating the evidence and that is that the issues of growth and employment are directly connected to the single currency.


We are in Draghi`s hands: if he manages to charge forward and if he can impose QE on public bonds by the first half of next year, then he will manage to put off for a short time, the certainty of Italy's collapse. Otherwise, the year 2015 will be remembered as the year of the exit from the Euro and also default. There's no other solution and even S&P has understood that today.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat Dec 13th, 2014 at 01:42:26 PM EST

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