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I realised that we have now changed system. Before yesterday we were a minority government parliamentarian system (with majority governments as the exception). But this will call for tit-for-tat, so if the left looses teh new election they will vote for their budget. And the Sweden democrats has declared that they will vote for opposing budget all the time until their demands are met.

So now it is not about getting the largest group, it is about getting a majority. With entrenched blocs and a big rascist-twits party that so far the others do not wnat to cooperate with. Interesting times.

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by A swedish kind of death on Thu Dec 4th, 2014 at 04:06:33 AM EST
And it's clearly the centre-right which has precipitated the regime change, no?

If new elections were to give the same numbers as the current parliament, presumably the centre-right would be invited to form a minority government, on the basis that they are the only ones able to pass a budget... with far-right support?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Dec 4th, 2014 at 07:06:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, it is the centre-right that did this. The left is not blameless, they nibbled on the edge of the structure last year when they broke out a tax reduction and stopped that with far-right support, but this is a big escalation.

If new elections return the same parliament it is up to the current speaker (soc-dem) to lead discussions and nominate a PM, or at least that is the case until a new speaker is elected. In September the speaker in the outgoing parliament (moderate, ie right-wing) demanded that Löfven showed that he had support to pass a budget, despite the former government voting collectively for theirs. In effect a deal with greens and left had to be shown before the speaker nominated him. The speaker's nomination is elected unless a majority votes against.

In tit-for-tat the outgoing speaker can demand the same thing of a centre-right government, and now the limit for being able to pass a budget has increased to majority, so centre-right + far-right. Or another new election. Or a break-up of the current bloc structure.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Thu Dec 4th, 2014 at 07:23:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The point is that you cannot expect a government to govern on the opposition's budget. If the opposition has the votes to defeat the government's budget, they should form the government.

So the left government has done what they should: resign and put the whole mess to the voters. After the next elections, either

  1. the left government is returned with a sufficient majority to pass a new budget, in which case they should form a government; or
  2. the left allows the parties behind this budget to form a minority government. If the right happen to not have a majority to do anything else in parliament the whole of 2015, tough luck. At least they get to implement their own budget. And in next autumn's budget process the left can defeat the government's budget and so on.

We all know from the Belgian experience a few years ago that having no government or an inoperative government is the best you can do for growth and jobs in the current political environment anyway.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Dec 4th, 2014 at 09:24:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What's the Right's official justification for the insistence on their budget? And what's the unofficial information regarding the aims of the Right's strategy (what did they want to achieve)?

Grammar nitpick: "loose" means not fastened or bound (not tight); "racist" is written without an "s".

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sat Dec 6th, 2014 at 04:53:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Before the election, they promised the voters a joint budget. Also, it helps them hang together. During the run-up to the budget vote, the social democrats tried to negotiate with the center-right parties separately, rather than as a joint coalition. To many people this looked a lot less like trying to find a solution and more as effort to break up the Alliance (as the center-right coalition is called), thus securing permanent soc-dem power.

What did the right want? Well, I think they wanted to spite the left, make them look bad, and maintain their internal cohesion with the aim of winning the 2018 election. They had probably not expected the SD to block the soc-dem budget. And more importantly, I'm convinced that in that event, they thought the soc-dems would ask the Speaker to try to form a new government, which either would be a pure soc-dem government (ditch the greens) wich would be far more amendable to negotioations, or it would be an Alliance minority government. Sure, the SD could wreck that government as well, but probably not until next fall, when the Alliance could have called for snap elections themselves.

Now, instead, the soc-dems called for snap elections, which kinda panicked the Alliance. They are showing a brave face now though. What else could they do?

The snap elections can still be called off until December 29, but that is very unlikely unless the SD starts polling consistently above 20 percent, which is very unlikely. At least until next year.

Pretty much this entire exercise has been a classical example of mirror imaging, where the right and left have misunderstood each other
and the SD completely. The right just as they have been saying for months that they would. The soc-dems probably thought they were bluffing and would fold at the last instant. The right expected a reshuffled government if SD struck, but they instead got snap elections.

SD is the only people who seem to have had a robust game plan all along, and seem to have read their opponents correctly as well. Pretty much no matter what happens, they are likely to be winners.

This is really quite dramatic. Sweden has had snap elections three times before, in 1958, 1914 and 1877. With the exception of 1958, those were really decisive events in the history of our democracy. This is really big too.

And there are so many possibilities and so much uncertainty that no one can feel they have a good idea what will come out of it. Too many moving parts. Too many unknown unknowns. Certainly interesting times.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Sun Dec 7th, 2014 at 01:26:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At least there was no secret collusion between SD and Alliance, I can assume. It was leaked now that in Thuringia, the CDU held secret talks with the AfD about foiling the election of Germany's first Left Party regional PM (which fortunately came to nothing). But there are voices for more cooperation or adoption of themes (Starvid).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Dec 7th, 2014 at 05:44:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As both sides are leaking now, it becomes very obvious that this is a case wrong assumptions about the other side. Also it appears that for a long time the Alliance thought SD would abstain (as they did during the previous session of parliament). When it came down to it, the Alliance thought the government would step down and renegotiate with them from a weakened position if the Alliance budget was passed, while the government thought the Alliance was bluffing and would in the end abstain enough votes for the governments budget to pass.

No secret collusion has come to light, and if there was the Alliance + SD could depose the current government before the 29th of December, which is the earliest date the government can formally call for new elections. No heavy weights inside the parties has begun any rethorical positioning for that though, everyone is full steam ahead for new elections while blaming the other side.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Mon Dec 8th, 2014 at 04:32:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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