Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
At this point, I bring up the question of the 'unexpected' survival of the Euro.

Years ago at the height of the crisis, I was surprised to see many ET regulars agree with Anglo-Saxon analysts like Paul Krugman that a break-up of the Euro or at least a Grexit is imminent. I don't live in the Eurozone so I felt unsure about my judgement and kept silent, but I thought that getting out of the Euro would seem such a step back for a significant part of the population that they will tolerate the austerity measures even if those hurt them and prove to make no economic sense at all. (I lived through enough austerity programmes to be cynical about how much can be forced down people's throats.) As I remember the concern over the Euro was then indeed the key factor in ND's late resurgence and Syriza's failure to win the last elections.

This might prove key again this time: will the introduction of a new currency be an option Syriza can offer to voters? On one hand, there might be many who realised that they would have been better advised to take the risk of Euro exit in 2010 and vote for Syriza to let them play that hand now. On the other hand, with the crisis appearing to be bottoming out, people might have become more risk-averse again. (I emphasize again that this has nothing to do with economic realities or the actual relative merits of the different policy choices, but public perceptions and groupthink.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 05:47:55 AM EST
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